Stop me if you’ve heard this before in recent years: Are the Florida Gators back?
Jon Sumrall has led Florida to a perfect 3-0 start in his debut season, bringing the joy back to Gainesville for the first time in a long time.
Ranked No. 21 in the latest AP Poll, Florida plays its biggest game in years Saturday when it hosts No. 4 Ole Miss (3-0) at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.
The Rebels, you may have heard, scored a massive win over LSU in Oxford last weekend.
Despite that, it’s the Gators who are 3.5-point favorites over the Rebels.
Ole Miss vs. Florida prediction
This will be a fun Rorschach Test for bettors.
Both of these SEC teams have plenty of wind in their sails after 3-0 starts and massive wins in Week 3, but the odds suggest that the betting market essentially views them as equals right now.
If you took away home-field advantage (roughly three points) from Florida, we’d be looking at a pick’em on a neutral field.
Things move fast in college football, and the Gators have been impressive through three games, but this does seem like a lot of respect for Florida, and in turn, disrespect for Ole Miss.
The Rebels were one score away from a trip to the national championship last year, have the current Heisman favorite at quarterback and are 3-0 with wins over Louisville and LSU this season.
Do they have flaws? Sure. But this is a seasoned group with plenty of big-game experience.
The same can’t be said of Florida.
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Sometimes we can overcomplicate things when it comes to handicapping college football, but this game feels like it can boil down to one simple point: Trinidad Chambliss, arguably the best player in the country this season, is getting three-and-the-hook against a quarterback who spent the last two years as the backup for Georgia Tech.
This game will feel trappy no matter what side you land on, but I’ll take my chances with Chambliss and the Rebels as an underdog Saturday.
The Play: Ole Miss +3.5 (-120, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
