As much of the South has been experiencing abnormally dry to drought conditions, an area of low pressure is expected to bring several inches of much-needed rain to parts of the region from Friday through Sunday.
However, this rainfall will also increase the risk of flash flooding, with the threat likely to continue into the weekend.
So far this season, nearly 20 locations are experiencing their driest winter on record, with over 200 locations seeing their top 10 driest on record.
With the majority of these locations in the Southeast, some major cities across the South are sitting nearly 6 inches below average rainfall, with Arkansas, Tennessee, Alabama and Georgia all experiencing severe to extreme drought.
A widespread 1–3 inches of rain is expected through Sunday.
According to the FOX Forecast Center, an upper-level disturbance will move out of Baja California and into the Southwest and Southern Plains this weekend.
As it emerges into the southern U.S., it will develop an area of low pressure that tracks into the Southeast.
As the system organizes, widespread rain, and even some thunderstorms, look likely across the region.
Currently, 1–2 inches of rain are possible across the Southern Plains to the Southeast coast.
Localized totals of 2–3 inches may occur in parts of Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia.
A flash flood risk has developed across parts of Oklahoma and Texas on Friday, currently sitting at a Level 1 of 4 risk.
The risk area extends into Arkansas from Saturday into Sunday morning, where a Level 2 of 4 flash flood risk is now present.
By Sunday, the threat is forecast to shift into the Southeast, with a Level 1 of 4 risk.
A Level 1 of 5 severe weather risk is set across West Texas late Friday as the low-pressure system develops.
While the atmosphere contains abundant warmth and moisture, low storm energy is expected to limit the overall severe potential.
Severe storms are expected to continue Saturday across Eastern Texas/Oklahoma and portions of Arkansas, with the most severe storms likely to develop along a line and sweep through major metros such as Dallas, Houston and San Antonio on Saturday afternoon.
The FOX Forecast Center said damaging winds look to be the biggest threat with any storm that develops.