The NCAA Tournament tips off Tuesday with a First Four doubleheader to ring in March Madness.
In the second game, we’ll see a pair of No. 11 seeds do battle for the right to make the field of 64 and face sixth-seeded BYU in the West Regional.
Both Texas and NC State had late-season slides that forced them into the First Four, but they are both exciting teams to watch.
Oddsmakers have this game priced as a coin flip, with NC State listed as a 1.5-point favorite and the Over/Under set at 157.5 points.
Texas vs. NC State prediction, best bet
March Madness is always about the matchups, and Texas vs. NC State should be an offensive show.
Per Bart Torvik’s rankings, NC State ranks 20th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, and Texas ranks 22nd.
NC State boasts one of the most balanced scoring starting units with four players averaging double figures: Quadir Copeland, Ven-Allen Lubin, and Paul McNeil Jr. score 13.9 points per game, and Darrion Williams scores 13.8 per game.
The Wolfpack are also one of the most accurate shooting teams from beyond the arc. They rank ninth in 3-point percentage (38.8 percent) and 89th in 3-point Rate.
Texas’ efficiency on offense comes from its ability to score inside and get to the free-throw line.
The Longhorns’ top two scorers, Dailyn Swain and Matas Vokietaitis, attempt 13.6 free throws per game, more than half of NC State’s team total (21.4).
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Texas is one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the country, too, and that should lessen the impact of a potential hot-shooting game from NC State.
It’s tough to pick a side in this game, but the season-long trends point to an outcome that has value.
Both of these teams have gone over the total at a significant rate this season — Texas at 61.3 percent and NC State at 63.6 percent.
This total has actually come down from the opening number, which was 162.5. That’s a high number for any team, regardless of how good the offenses are, but now that it’s at 157.5 points, the Over is much more palatable.
The Pick: Over 157.5 points (-115, FanDuel)
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Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.