Vladimir Putin may be way having his bluff called, said Dr Paul Van Hooft (Image: GETTY)
Joe Biden’s decision to allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles inside Russia likely stems from his concern at the arrival of North Korean troops, a defence analyst has said.
Mr Biden’s move marks a significant escalation in Western support for Kyiv amid its ongoing war with Moscow, and is a bold move from a man who is preparing to vacate the White House for Donald Trump in January.
The move underscores Washington’s commitment to helping Ukraine defend its sovereignty – but critics have raised concerns about the potential for this decision to provoke a wider conflict, and even direct confrontation between NATO and Moscow.
Dr Paul Van Hooft, a Research Leader with Rand Europe, believes Mr Biden is trying to send a strong message to Russian President Vladimir Putin without escalating tensions unnecessarily.
He told Express.co.uk the decision was “significant” because it would enable Volodymyr Zelensky’s forces to target Russian assets currently being used to attack Ukrainian cities, and especially the country’s energy grid.
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Donald Trump, pictured at UFC 309 (Image: Getty)
He explained: “Making the Russian missile attacks more difficult and costly is a benefit, especially if it prevents more damage to the Ukrainian energy grid as winter is approaching.”
Nevertheless, he stressed: “I do not believe it is a game changer – at least by itself. The Ukrainians lack the manpower and capabilities to exploit the long-range attacks.
“The long-range weapons are valuable against Russian command and control posts, staging areas, some industry, but then the question is how decisive any single attack would be?
“These are very expensive weapons and Ukraine has a limited supply, so some kind of massive campaign is out of the question.”
Korean People’s Army (KPA) soldiers march during a mass rally in Pyongyang (Image: AFP via Getty Images)
Additionally, with limited strikes, the Russians would adapt, as was witnessed with the use of tactical drones in 2022, he pointed out.
Asked to outline the risks, Dr Van Hooft continued: “Putin has said that allowing the weapons to be used on Russian territory will be met with reprisals against NATO.
“Yet previous red lines have been crossed without a Russian response (though reports suggest we might have been close back in September 2022).”
Mr Van Hooft speculated: “The Biden administration’s decision seems to have been triggered by the arrival of North Korean troops. You could also see this in the context of the election outcome, with Trump promising a quick end to the war, and Scholz’ call to Putin a few days ago.
Live fire tests of the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) at the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico (Image: US Army)
“The Biden administration might have judged that Russia would interpret the changing situation as Western weakness that they could take advantage off.”
The Biden administration lifting the restrictions – “and thereby freeing up the Brits and French” – may be intended as a “signal of strength and resolve”, said Dr Van Hooft.
He concluded: “If Putin understands this as a response to his escalation, he might consider it fair. However, if he feels that his bluff can only be called so many times before he loses credibility, he could further escalate.
“My personal appraisal of the situation is that the risks are still manageable, and that the weapons give Ukraine enough to raise the cots for Russian attacks on the energy grid, which hopefully stops the Russians from feeling too emboldened.”
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Addressing the situation yesterday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: “It is obvious that the outgoing administration in Washington intends to take steps and they have been talking about this, to continue adding fuel to the fire and provoking further escalation of tensions around this conflict.”
The UK Government has not confirmed whether it will follow suit by lifting restrictions on the use of Storm Shadow missiles it has supplied, but Defence Secretary John Healey stressed the UK was working in “close co-operation” with the US.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said: “I’m not going to get into operational details, because the only winner, if we were to do that, is Putin, and I’m not prepared to do that.”
