A military expert has issued a stark warning over the prospect of a nuclear attack. “We have, despite the protestations of some, a strategic nuclear deterrent, and that makes the prospect of a nuclear attack on the United Kingdom, I think, still quite a remote possibility.” However, this is only true if we “maintain a strong nuclear deterrence”, Commodore Prest stipulated, meaning “not only the submarines and the missiles and the warheads, but also the things to protect it”.
In addition, when the submarines are at sea, anti-submarine warfare forces need to be maintained to “be able to make sure that the Russians and other naval forces who might wish us harm can’t come and interfere with our strategic deterrent”. “Having that assured second strike capability,” the former Navy man said, “I think means that a nuclear strike on the UK, and for that matter on NATO, remains a pretty remote possibility.”
But he caveated that with a chilling warning: “The chances are not zero”. It comes amid concern over the positioning of Russian fishing trawlers over Britain’s undersea cables, which carry vital data and communications to and from abroad. Analysis by the Telegraph found that there have been 500 incidents of Russian civilian vessels loitering above them. Russia has warned that nuclear weapons are not on the table if the UK acted against it in what it judges to be an aggressive manner.
In October, the House of Commons Defence Select Committee warned that the High North has become crucial for the UK’s defence and security, with the Kremlin increasingly sending spy ships based there into British waters. Failing to defend the region could leave underwater cables and pipelines exposed to sabotage during peacetime, MPs said.
Commodore Prest said the risk of a conflict with Moscow is higher than it has been since the height of the Cold War. He added: “I think, in many ways, certainly, a confrontation with Russia is already taking place. Whether you would define what is occurring in terms of the activities we’re seeing — attacks on our national resilience in terms of cyber and the work that GUGI are doing on the undersea cable and so on.
“Whether we would describe that as a conflict or not, I’ll let others decide.” Dr. Maxim Starchak, an independent expert on Russian nuclear policy, strategic weapons and defence industry and fellow at the Centre for International and Defence Policy of the Queen’s University in Canada, previously told the Express that Britain should “monitor Russian nuclear policy and the triggers that may influence it” and “maintain dialogue in the P5 format” — multilateral communication involving the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council: the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom and France.
The UK should also “accelerate the warhead replacement programme (A21/Mk7) and the construction of Dreadnought-class submarines” and the purchase of F-35A fighters “to restore the air component of nuclear deterrence”, Dr. Starchak recommended.
The Prime Minister should oversee the strengthening of “coordination with France and create a joint nuclear planning mechanism” and “develop air-defence/missile-defence systems, in particular accelerate the commissioning of E-7 Wedgetail aircraft and Sea Viper Evolution missiles”, the specialist added.
