Ursula von der Leyen’s looks set for a torrid time as European Commission chief as an old rival returns to the political stage keen on breaking up the EU, insiders have suggested.
The European Commission president famously had a rocky relationship with incoming US President Donald Trump, and it’s thought his second term could exacerbate existing EU struggles, including efforts to support Ukraine as it seeks to fend off Russia and keep international climate targets on track.
Trump has also vowed to withdraw Washington from the Paris climate agreement for the second time as part of his isolationist “America First” policy.
He has also sparked panic on the continent by insisting he will quickly broker a negotiated end to the Russia-Ukraine war when he takes office in January, which many fear will involve ending or cutting US military aid to Kyiv to bring both parties to the table.
Von der Leyen has been a major political player in the bloc over the past five years, coordinating its COVID response and backing Kyiv. This support relied on close cooperation with the current Biden administration, a nemesis of Trump.
Biden had warned her about the possibility of a Russian invasion in November 2021, and the pair worked together to ensure a bruising set of export controls and sanctions were prepared when Russia’s tanks rolled across the border, with cooperation continuing as the conflict ground on.
Von der Leyen also worked with Biden’s team to minimise the impact of his Inflation Reduction Act amid fears that it might hamper EU exports to the US and cause EU firms to relocate Stateside.
But it’s thought that von der Leyen risks being seen as too close to Biden as Trump returns to the stage, two EU diplomats told Politico.
In his first term, Trump was a thorn in the EU’s side. He pulled out of international agreements, slapped tariffs on steel and aluminium, and hailed Britain’s decision to leave the bloc.
The Republican previously said he would encourage the Kremlin to do “whatever the hell they want” to countries falling short of NATO spending targets and has branded the EU as a “foe” of Washington.
One EU diplomat told the outlet sarcastically that, “Trump has never been so keen on recognising the EU as an interlocutor.”
Anthony Gardner, a former US ambassador to the EU, went a step further, warning: “This is a man who thought Brexit is a great idea and there should be more Brexits. He would like to see the EU break up.”
Trump’s promise of weighty tarrifs on both allies and adversaries is another immediate concern, after the former real-estate mogul committed to leveraging tariffs of 10 to 20% on Europe, and a 60% tariff on imports from China, which could have serious implications for the EU market.
EU Diplomats also worry, privately, that tariffs threats could be linked to failures to step up spending on defense, with major economy Germany potentially in the firing line in that regard.
Diplomats believe that given her frosty relationship with Trump, she may have to rely on others with a better chance of having his ear, like Italian right-wing PM Giorgia Meloni or NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, as per the outlet.
It’s thought von der Leyen is also readying sticks and carrots with which to negotiate with Trump, with the third EU diplomat telling Politico: “Trump is a dealer,” adding: “Above all, he wants to negotiate.”
She’s already tried to catch Trump’s eye by suggesting Brussels could buy more liquefied natural gas (LNG) from America to avoid tariffs on goods from Europe,
Mark Leonard of the European Council on Foreign Relations told the outlet he doubts this approach will be effective.
“I don’t think they necessarily even worked that well last time around,” Leonard said.
“A lot of people tried to hug Trump close and to flatter his vanity and they hoped that that would somehow bring them advantages. But whether it was Theresa May rushing to the White House or meeting him in the Rose Garden or Macron inviting him to Paris to take part in military parades, these things very rarely actually translate into much influence over what Trump did from the issues that they cared about.”
