Elon Musk, who sparked outrage last year by proposing a controversial peace plan that included Crimea becoming permanent territory of Russia, now suggests Ukraine’s counteroffensive has been slowed by concerns about a Russian counterattack.
“The flower of Ukrainian and Russian youth have been dying in trenches for a long time with almost no territorial gains,” Musk tweeted. “Whichever side goes on the offensive against heavily entrenched positions will lose far more soldiers. Moreover, Russia outnumbers Ukraine ~4:1, so would win a war of attrition even if casualties were equal.”
If Ukraine takes heavy casualties in its offensive, Musk wrote, “a Russian counterattack would capture a lot more territory. This is why there has been no major offensive.”
The plan Musk tweeted in October suggested Ukraine drop its bid for NATO membership and allow regions seized by Russia since it’s invasion in February 2022 − Crimea has been occupied since 2014 − to conduct referendums to determine if they want to stay aligned with Moscow. The plan drew support from Moscow but bitter criticism from Ukraine’s leaders.
“If you want to understand what Russia has done here, come to Ukraine and you will see this with your own eyes,” Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in October. “After that, you will tell us how to end this war.”
Developments:
∎Russia’s Defense Ministry released a video Monday of Gen. Valery Gerasimov, the first time he has been seen publicly since Prigozhin’s ill-fated coup sought dismissal of Russia’s military leader.
∎89% of Ukrainians want their country to join NATO, according to a survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.
∎Ukraine has liberated almost 4 square miles in the south and about 1.5 square miles in the east over the past week, the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces said Monday.
Vladimir Putin met with Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin
Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin and his commanders five days after the mercenary group’s short-lived rebellion, the Kremlin said Monday. The Moscow meeting, confirmed by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, appears to introduce fresh uncertainty about Prigozhin’s continuing influence with Russia’s leader in the wake of the failed armed mutiny. Peskov said that on June 29 Prigozhin offered an “assessment” of Wagner’s actions on the battlefield in Ukraine and “of the events of June 24,” according to Russian state media. He said Putin “listened to the explanations of the commanders and offered them options for further employment and further use in combat.”
The meeting lasted about three hours. According to Peskov, Prigozhin offered his unconditional support to Putin during their meeting.
The rebellion ended after Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko promised Prigozhin amnesty for him and his troops provided they relocate to neighboring Belarus. But Russian media reported last week that Prigozhin had recently been seen at his offices in St. Petersburg.
The rebellion, launched amid Prigozhin’s claimed frustration with Russia’s military leadership and its handling of the war in Ukraine, lasted just 24 hours. Prigozhin’s current whereabouts have not been publicly disclosed. His private army has helped Russia’s regular armed forces in key battles in eastern Ukraine.
Turkey wants EU membership in exchange for backing Sweden’s NATO bid
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called Monday for European countries to accept Turkey into the European Union in exchange for signing off on Sweden’s NATO membership. Turkey has blocked Swede’s membership for months, claiming Sweden was sympathetic to Kurdish militants Ankara considers a threat to national security. Sweden has been working toward meeting those demands and NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg has said it’s possible that Sweden could win acceptance at the NATO summit opening Tuesday in Vilnius, Lithuania.
“Turkey has been waiting at the door of the European Union for over 50 years now, and almost all of the NATO member countries are now members of the European Union,” Erdogan told reporters in Istanbul. “When you pave the way for Turkey, we’ll pave the way for Sweden” into NATO.
