Either Iowa or Illinois will punch its ticket to the Final Four on Saturday night, ending a long drought for one of the two programs.
No. 3 seed Illinois hasn’t been to the final weekend of March Madness since 2005, when Dee Brown, Luther Head and Deron Williams carried the Fighting Illini within one win of its first national championship.
No. 9 seed Iowa hasn’t been to the Final Four since 1980.
Iowa vs. Illinois odds, prediction
Much has been made about the lack of Cinderellas in recent iterations of the Big Dance, but No. 9 Iowa is providing the masses with something warm and fuzzy.
Although not on the same level as George Mason, St. Peter’s, Loyola or VCU, nobody saw the Hawkeyes coming this March.
Iowa finished the regular season in abysmal form, losing three in a row and six of eight before bowing out against Ohio State in the second round of the Big Ten Tournament.
On the surface, the Hawkeyes looked like a typical No. 9 seed, a solid team, but one that didn’t stand out against the heavyweights in the field.
Sometimes that kind of steadiness is enough to survive in a single-elimination tournament.
Unfortunately, they’ve run into a team that beats them at their own strengths.
While the Hawkeyes grade out pretty well offensively (20th overall in KenPom, 16th in Bart Torvik), they’re taking on the second-best offense in the country.
Neither one of these defenses is among the true elites in the field, but Illinois (20th in KenPom) once again grades out better on paper than Iowa (32nd).
Betting on College Basketball?
When you drill down further, the tale of the tape reveals advantages for Illinois all over the map.
The Illini are stronger on the glass, they take care of the ball and they are more adept at defending the 3-pointer. Illinois also won the only meeting between these two teams, 75-69, although it came more than two months ago.
To make matters worse for Iowa is that its one trick up its sleeve, a snail-paced tempo, won’t throw Illinois off its game. Not only do the Illini play at a slow rhythm themselves, but they also just eliminated Houston, another plodding offense, in the Sweet 16.
All the signs point to Iowa’s magic running out Saturday.
The Play: Illinois -6.5 (-115, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.