Pakistan’s military establishment has long navigated the country’s turbulent political waters, but it now faces a potentially volatile scenario with serious international ramifications.
Former Prime Minister Imran Khan remains imprisoned, his removal from power widely viewed as an attempt by Pakistan’s “deep state” to silence a popular political figure. However, with Donald Trump set to re-enter the White House in January, the Pakistani military must consider the impact of this alliance and realize that delaying Khan’s release could have far-reaching consequences.
For Pakistan, where economic woes are mounting and relationships with major powers are critical, it would be wise for the military to release Khan before they are forced into a position where pressure from Trump’s administration forces their hand.
The personal rapport between Trump and Khan is a pivotal factor that could shape Pakistan’s foreign relations if Trump returns to the White House. During their overlapping time in office, both men found camaraderie in their populist outlooks and shared skepticism of their respective “deep states.”
Trump praised Khan’s leadership and saw him as an ally in stabilizing Afghanistan, negotiating with the Taliban, and recalibrating the US-Pakistan relationship after years of tension.
For Trump, who views Khan as a friend, Khan’s imprisonment would be a personal affront. Trump has a history of responding negatively to perceived injustices against his allies and friends, especially when he believes they have been targeted by establishment forces.
He might even see parallels between Khan’s situation and his own, drawing a line between the “spurious legal mechanisms” that brought charges against Khan and what Trump considers “deep-state” efforts to marginalize him in the US.
Thus, a Trump administration is highly likely to pressure Pakistan for Khan’s release, and the intensity of that pressure will only increase if the military appears unyielding.
Pakistan is grappling with a severe economic crisis. Inflation is skyrocketing, foreign reserves are dangerously low, and even longstanding ally China has grown hesitant to provide the level of financial support Pakistan has historically relied on.
In these conditions, Pakistan’s leadership knows they cannot afford strained relations with the US. Without a solid rapport with Washington, Pakistan could lose out on essential support from international financial institutions and face hurdles in accessing desperately needed foreign investments.
The current government, led by Shahbaz Sharif, has taken initial steps to prepare for Trump’s potential return by deleting past derogatory tweets about him — a symbolic acknowledgment of the need to restore ties. However, for Trump, mere apologies or deleted tweets will not suffice, especially with his “friend” Khan behind bars.
The military’s credibility in Washington is already damaged; leaders who previously criticized Trump now seek his goodwill. Their best chance at repairing relations with a future Trump administration lies in demonstrating a commitment to democracy and fairness by releasing Khan of their own accord.
Another powerful influence in this equation is Zalmay Khalilzad, Trump’s trusted advisor on Central and South Asia. Khalilzad, a seasoned diplomat who helped orchestrate US-Taliban talks, is vocal in his belief that Pakistan must release Khan.
His public statements on the matter are a clear signal of how a Trump administration might approach Khan’s imprisonment. For Khalilzad, Khan’s detention reflects poorly on Pakistan’s adherence to democratic values and judicial independence — values that would be crucial for maintaining any goodwill with the US.
Khalilzad’s role as an advisor amplifies the urgency. He has Trump’s ear and could make the case that releasing Khan would significantly benefit Pakistan’s relationship with the US, particularly on issues related to Afghanistan, trade, and potentially even regional disputes like Kashmir.
For Pakistan’s military, the choice to keep Khan detained risks a diplomatic standoff with a potentially renewed Trump administration. If the military waits until they are pressured into releasing Khan, it would appear as though they are merely bowing to US demands, undermining their control over domestic politics.
Releasing Khan now, however, would offer them a chance to reshape the narrative, showing that they respect the democratic process and are open to national reconciliation. This would improve Pakistan’s image abroad and ease domestic tensions, particularly among Khan’s sizable base of supporters, who feel disenfranchised by his imprisonment.
In addition, the military would benefit from a reset in US-Pakistan relations. When Trump and Khan worked together on Afghanistan, trade, and even began to cautiously discuss Kashmir, it marked one of the highest points in US-Pakistan relations.
Reviving that level of engagement could help Pakistan secure much-needed financial and diplomatic support at a time when few other allies are willing to assist.
