It looked like a diplomatic masterstroke back in February when Sir Keir Starmer turned up at the White House, reached inside his jacket pocket and presented President Trump with an invitation from King Charles to come to Britain for a second state visit. The President seemed surprised and moved at this honour, describing the King as a “beautiful man”.
Sir Keir won an international reputation as the Trump-tamer. His time in Washington DC contrasted starkly with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s disastrous visit to the Oval Office, where he was publicly berated by both Mr Trump and Vice-President JD Vance.
Sir Keir’s world has changed radically since that trip across the Atlantic. Westminster is now rife with speculation Sir Keir will not last in post to the next election, and hosting the deeply controversial US President is nobody’s idea of how to boost his popularity with his base.
The latest YouGov polling shows nearly half (45%) of Britons say it was wrong to invite President Trump to the country with just three in 10 saying it was the right move.
While 64% of Reform voters back the visit, it is opposed by large majorities of supporters of Labour (62%), the Liberal Democrats (64%) or the Greens (70%).
Labour needs to stop voters peeling away to these Left-wing alternatives, and treating Mr Trump to Grade A photo opportunities when Britain’s progressives are appalled by US migrant deportations comes with considerable political risk.
Unhelpfully, Mayor of London Sadiq Khan – often spoken of as a potential Labour leadership contender – has decided to give the country the spectacle of a leading politician throwing verbal punches the President’s way, saying Mr Trump has “perhaps done the most to fan the flames of divisive, far-right politics around the world in recent years” and accusing him of actions “straight out of the autocrat’s playbook”.
Justifying the visit would be easier if Sir Keir had secured the slashing of tariffs on steel exports from 25% to zero. That was the big hope but such a breakthrough deal – with profound consequences for citizens in Labour heartlands – is on hold.
Earlier this year Sir Keir succeeded in striking an “economic prosperity deal” which spared the UK the full brunt of Mr Trump’s tariffs, but as Liam Byrne, the chair of the business and trade select committee, said this week: “Britain is trading with its biggest partner on worse terms than before.”
The Prime Minister will hope the visit will finish without further revelations surfacing about former British ambassador to the US Lord Mandelson’s relationship with Jeffrey Epstein. He will grimace if anything distracts from his efforts to boost investment, clear away trade obstacles and secure American support for Ukraine.
Britain has reminded the world we can turn on the pomp whatever the weather. But it will take much more than a carriage ride and a fly-past to rescue the PM’s fortunes.