What at first seemed like the usual tit-for-tat rocket and drone strikes we have come to expect between Israel and Iran has evolved into something more serious. Eight days on from Israel’s attack on Tehran’s nuclear infrastructure, it’s clear this is no limited mission, rather the beginning of a long-planned attempt to decapitate the Iranian regime, neutralise its nuclear ambitions and promote regime change.
Ever since the overthrow of the kingdom of Iran 1979, the militant Shia Islamic republic, led first by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini and now Ali Khamenei, and Israel have been mortal enemies. A core belief of the ayatollahs is that Israel must be “wiped from the face of the earth”. For 46 years Iran has loomed over Israel like a malevolent shadow, and security analysts have long predicted the day would come when they squared off for a fight to the death. It appears that day is with us.
President Trump may have been angered by the original attack but, once the scale of its success became apparent, he changed tack, reiterating his support for Israel, and his increasingly combative language towards Iran suggests the chances of US airborne intervention on the Israeli side, which could drag in UK forces, are rising daily.
The US President may have said Thursday evening, via a White House press briefing, that he will decide whether to attack Iran in the next two weeks amid a “substantial chance” of a diplomatic solution but, make no mistake, the situation remains highly charged.
Benjamin Netanyahu chose his moment well, when Iran’s allies, mostly terrorist groups based in Syria, Lebanon, Palestine and Yemen, were at their weakest. Ever since the October 7 attacks in 2023, the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) has ground down these regional militias, such as the Houthis, Hamas and Hezbollah, a process aided in December 2024 by the collapse of President Bashar al-Assad’s repressive regime in Syria.
Though diplomatically supported by Russia and China, Iran is now increasingly isolated in the region. Most of the other Gulf states, led by Saudi Arabia, are of less aggressive Sunni Islamic persuasion and were fearful of Iran’s dominance. However, they will be equally nervous of Israel filling this new regional power vacuum.
Operation Rising Lion appears to have been planned for years. But Israeli aircraft, including F-35 and KC-46 refuelling tankers, were for the first time able to range over Syria, thanks to the implosion of the Assad regime. We know short-range drones were assembled and launched from secret Mossad bases inside Iran, suggesting much preparation.
Iran’s defences seem to have been so effectively neutralised that Israel now claims its pilots can fly over Tehran with little interference. Of the other bases attacked, the nuclear facility in the mountains around Natanz causes the most worry. The Israelis have severely damaged much of the surface infrastructure, but I predict Netanyahu may launch a special forces raid to enter its tunnels and destroy nuclear-associated equipment beyond repair.
The Israeli prime minister is very conscious of the risks of such an endeavour, as his brother Yonatan was killed leading a Commando raid to release hostages at Entebbe in 1976. The international community is urging de-escalation, but neither Iran or Israel wants a deal. Both are bent on vengeance.
For Netanyahu, Rising Lion represents a once in a generation opportunity to force regime change on its deadly neighbour, and he will likely pursue “escalation dominance” for as long as he can.
Keir Starmer will wisely wish to keep the UK out of the direct line of fire in this conflict, which is the first major international test for his government. The ball is now in Tehran’s court, but we remain on the verge of a regional tsunami.
In the meantime, Israel will have to endure the pinpricks of ballistic missile attacks on its Iron Dome rocket defences over Jerusalem and Tel Aviv. We do not know how weak Iran has become militarily, but Israel appears set to ensure nothing less than the permanent emasculation of its neighbour and ultimately regime change in Tehran. Mr Netanyahu may achieve the former but the second may be beyond his grasp.
- Peter Caddick-Adams is a military historian and commentator and author of, among others, Sand & Steel: A New History of D-Day (Cornerstone, £16.99)