Donald Trump’s recent press conference was certainly an eye-popper, with talk of taking over everything from the Panama Canal to Greenland to even Canada. No plans yet to annex Britain but perhaps that’s for a later date.
There was the usual stuff on NATO paying its fair share, a bit on Israel and Ukraine. But surely the big elephant in the room remains China/Taiwan.
Crucially this is an issue the President-elect is likely to face in his second term since CCP leader Xi Jinping has got to have something to say on plans to take over the island democracy in time for the next Communist Party Congress in 2027.
Without taking over Taiwan, China cannot hope to cut through the ‘first island chain’ of Western-allied island countries which currently blocks Beijing from dominating its backyard.
Without dominating its backyard, China can kiss goodbye to its longstanding goal of establish geopolitical parity with America, a longstanding goal of the CCP leadership, and backing down over which would result in the most humiliating loss of face.
Trump may believe tariffs will bring China into line, but a bit like the idea they will pay for tax cuts, the reality is likely to be somewhat different.
For starters, China has workarounds like rerouting manufacturing to Mexico, while Beijing knows the economic pain Americans would suffer if indeed tariffs were applied without any restraint.
Trump may call Taiwan out for taking US jobs in the semiconductor space, but Washington cannot afford not to back Taipei whether China blockades or invades Taiwan.
If China takes Taiwan, it would destroy US credibility with Asian allies, and could even undermine the almighty dollar since a big reason for the US currency’s dominance is the fact the US Navy is the guarantor of the sea lanes.
So for all the foreign policy pointers at the Mar-a-Lago space, there is one issue whose importance dwarves all the rest. Ultimately no US President can afford to throw Taiwan to the wolves.
The reality is that the East Asia question is likely to be the dominant issue of the Trump presidency.
