President-elect Donald Trump has apparently decided to appoint China hawks Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz to the positions of secretary of state and national security adviser respectively.
In addition, Fox News host Pete Hegseth – who once said “China is building an army to defeat America” to the post of defence secretary, while John Ratcliffe is set to be CIA chief. Ratcliffe has called China the top threat to American interests.
This could offer the clearest indication yet of Trump’s intent when it comes to China and Taiwan. While the presidential election winner has called out Taiwan for what he sees as stealing US jobs in the past, chances are he knows the US will have to come to the island democracy’s defence should Beijing invade or blockade.
That is because a Chinese Communist Party (CCP) takeover of Taiwan – which sits in the “first island chain” of US-allied states – would allow China to project power into the Pacific, pushing the US out of the region, with all the military and economic ramifications that brings for Washington.
At the same time, Rubio’s appointment could also signal Trump’s intent to withdraw US support for Kyiv. Speaking in September, Rubio said “the reality of it is that the way the war in Ukraine is going to end is with a negotiated settlement.”
On the domestic front, immigration hawk Stephen Miler is also set to be appointed deputy chief of staff for policy. Miller has said a second Trump administration would seek a tenfold increase in the number of deportations to over 1 million annually.
These appointments signal perhaps a more confident Trump government, one which will double down on MAGA talking points, especially with a more amenable Congress to help get things through.
It seems certain that Trump will also push ahead with major tax cuts – not least for corporate America – but whether or not he follows through with his massive tariff plans is more debatable.
While aiding US industry is a key part of the Trump agenda, as is levelling the playing field with China, Trump knows inflation was a huge reason he got over the finish line last week.
Tariffs could exacerbate inflation. While Trump doesn’t have to worry about re-election, his administration might be more cautious when it comes to this issue given how impactful it could be on the American consumer.
But on immigration, it seems the Trump administration is signalling its early intent to hit the ground running, especially as the President-elect managed to capture a substantial Hispanic vote which liked what it heard on the economy, crime and the border.
Meanwhile, the foreign policy picks signal perhaps a dialling down over Ukraine and a readiness to hold back the CCP. Vice President-elect J D Vance has also previously argued that President Joe Biden’s arming of Ukraine has passed the point of diminishing returns and distracts the US from China, perhaps indicating a growing consensus in the Trump team on this point.
For China – facing its own economic problems – the worse ties with America become, and the more its economy takes a hit from tariffs, then the more likely it perhaps is to make a move on Taiwan, believing it has less to lose and more to gain.
Ultimately CCP leader Xi Jinping has staked his reputation on taking over Taiwan. Without it he can kiss goodbye to the longstanding goal of achieving geopolitical parity with Uncle Sam. Xi really has a window of opportunity on this, leading up to maybe 2027 when the next party congress takes place. At best the window closes around 2029 by which point America and her allies will have beefed up their military readiness significantly.
Rubio, Waltz, Hegseth and Ratcliffe will be all too aware of this, and while Donald Trump Jr may be correct when he says there will be no place for war hawks in the Trump team, that seems more relevant to Ukraine and will likely not distract the new administration from the consequences of bailing on Taiwan.
Miller’s appointment meanwhile displays an early toughness over migration, critical to Trump’s success. This is clearly an emboldened Trump, unleashed and ready to finish the job from round one, but this time with a more pliable Congress. The next few years are likely to be dramatic to say the least.
