The relationship between Sir Keir Starmer and Donald Trump was never going to be a smooth one; two diametrically opposed personalities representing two contrasting ideologies which seems to pull ever more tightly on the frayed twine that binds the UK and US together.
This might, one would think, require a delicacy of touch when choosing who will officially represent our interests as British ambassador to the United States.
Seasoned diplomats such as the unflappable Dame Karen Pierce have shown, during her recent tenure as UK ambassador to Washington, the skill it requires to negotiate choppy waters when the Oval Office and Downing Street don’t see eye-to -eye politically.
So it is no surprise that ardent trans-Atlanticists accused Sir Keir of placing ideology before mutual security when the PM rejected another seasoned diplomat for the post, in favour of the former EU Commissioner Peter Mandelson.
If flying the flag for globalism is guaranteed to make him choke on his hamburger, they argued, Lord Mandelson’s two-decade relationship with Beijing might just lead Trump to call out of the militia.
Most predicted that the President would simply block the appointment.
But his decision to thwart expectations shows that, far from the impetuous MAGA populist he often portrayed himself as being, Trump 2.0 is actually Grandmaster of 3D chess.
In the first place, barring Mandelson’s appointment would have put his own political appointment to the court of St James’s , the Arkansas hedgefunder Warren Stephens, in jeopardy.
But there’s more to it than that.
The nomination is still going through the vetting process needed for all UK diplomats who work in the US.
Moreover,Trump’s team have made it known that the the FBI has officially launched a formal investigation.
This is an overt signal to the incoming ambassador that his cards have been marked.
Though Mandelson, co-founder of the influential global advisory firm Global Counsel, denies ever doing business in China, he will have to contend with a raft of dossiers containing lists of examples of his high-level meetings and mentions of his work with Chinese state-owned enterprises.
One of the dossiers presented to the FBI has been compiled by Chung Ching Kwong of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, and is said to be forensic in the details it contains.
Of course, since one of Xi Jinping’s first acts after coming to power in 2012 was to establish the so-called Civil-Fusion Strategy, which inexorably ended the division between Chinese civilian firms and the state in order to advance military, economic, and technological prowess, all Chinese firms answer directly to the state and serve its agenda if called upon to do so.
If the FBI expresses real concern over national security Trump, who is removed from the process, retains the option to make the Mandelson’s appointment untenable with a shrug of his shoulders and a statement that, well, that at least he tried.
It’s not as if there’s no precedent for this.
During his last administration, Britain was forced to recall Ambassador Sir Kim Darroch following leaked disclosures of unfavourable comments amid at Potus.
In the meantime The Donald, an anglophile and fervent royalist – whose first act was to re-instate the bust of Winston Churchill which was disdainfully removed form the Oval Office by Joe Biden – is said to have secured prizes of his own.
Sources say he has been granted permission to address Parliament, and has secured the attendance of the Prince and Princess of Wales at a State dinner at the White House.
Mandelson is only the second British political appointee to occupy the post in nearly 50 years.
Some diplomats have suggested that offering Trump face-to-face access with someone who can leapfrog diplomatic hurdles and offer a direct line to the PM’s thinking should be regarded as an honour.
That may be. The incoming ambassador has already launched a charm offensive, talking tough on China’s nefarious influence and admitting that his 2019 description of Trump as reckless and a danger to the world were “ill-judged and wrong”.
However, just as Mandelson can use his influence in Washington DC to further the UK Government’s policy ambitions (not to mention countering Nigel Farage’s growing influence there and), so can he be used by Trump to amplify US goals to the heart of Downing Street.
Crucially, it is Trump’s transactionalism that will make the difference over the next four years.
He knows that this is a two-way street and could actually benefit the UK if Starmer puts ideology aside and focusses on common ground.
Yes, the Chagos islands issue is problematic.
But both Washington DC and London remain broadly aligned regarding Trump’s short-term strategic priority, Israel.
It is too soon to tell exactly how Trump will handle the brokering of a peace deal in Ukraine, but those who assume he will go easy on Putin should recall that it was Trump, not Obama, who was the first Western leader to give Kyiv lethal aid.
They would do well to remember, too, that while he was publicly questing the wisdom of Nato’s Article 5 obligations, the US had the most military boots on the ground that at any period since the end of the Cold War.
To quote Britain’s former ambassador to Russia Sir Laurie Bristow, who was in Moscow during the 2015 Salisbury poisonings crisis: “Putin had very high expectations of Trump once , but those expectations were largely dashed when he realised he could not manipulate Trump as much as he thought he could.”
During their phone call on Sunday, Starmer went out of his way to point out that the UK was pursiing diregulation to boost our economy. And the PM has already expressed an interest in pursuing a Free Trade Agreement.
Trump has the scope to offer a real alternative to the limited economic benefits promised by a Treasury-led rapprochement with Beijing.
By not opposing Mandelson’s appointment, Trump has shown he can think several steps ahead.
Now it’s up to Starmer to show he can negotiate a chess board too.