The Dodgers’ biggest strength might lead them to their biggest flaw during the most critical part of the season.
The strength? The starting pitching. The flaw? Their bullpen. The reason? A brutal heat wave that is set to hit California this weekend.
When Tarik Skubal takes the mound for Game 1 of the NLDS against the Braves at 1 p.m. Saturday, it’s expected to be 100 degrees.
Saturday is expected to be the hottest day of the heat wave. Temperatures are predicted to reach the high 90s during the rest of the week.
The harsh conditions aren’t expected to be as much of a factor in Game 2, with first pitch set for 5 p.m. Sunday.
But for Skubal, 29, the heat wave raises the question of low long he will be able to go.
According to a study by Jyh-How Huang, Yung-Chin Chiu and Chen-Kang Chang from the National Library of Medicine, when pitchers and hitters are playing in an extremely hot environment, there is an increase in slugging percentage, isolated power, walks and home runs.
The Brain Cooler wrote that extreme heat conditions can affect pitchers’ performances because they may struggle with grip and control of the baseball. They also added that players’ health can be affected because they may play with an increased heart rate, sweating and fluid loss — all of which can lead to dehydration.
Skubal’s play style could be a blessing and a curse this weekend. Known as one of the more prominent power pitchers in the game, Skubal could find himself exhausting early if he relies heavily on his fastball.
Last season, he threw it 38% of the time, topping out at 100 mph.
Aside from the challenging conditions, the Braves present another daunting task.
Atlanta finished the regular season fifth in the National League for slugging percentage (.409) and tied with the Dodgers at fourth for home runs (204).
Matt Olson led the Braves with a .502 slugging percentage and 41 homers. Behind him in slugging were Michael Harris (.491) and Drake Baldwin (.459).
The Dodgers are expected to have an early advantage against the Braves, who used a lot of their rotation in a three-game NL wild-card series against the Phillies.
If Atlanta manages to knock out Skubal early, it might level the playing field.
Los Angeles’ bullpen has been the weakest link in its star-studded cast this season. FanGraphs had its bullpen finishing with a 3.74 team ERA, a 9.9 walk percentage and an HR/9 of 0.96.
