WASHINGTON — Tuesday’s upset victory by Florida Democrat Emily Gregory in President Trump’s home state House district is a bad sign for Republicans hoping to hold Congress in the November midterms, CNN data buff Harry Enten predicted.
While Democrats have a long history of holding Florida’s 87th House District, including from 2012 to 2024, Gregory’s special election victory in a district Trump carried by 10 points two years ago is the latest in a string of defeats and underperformance by Republican candidates, Enten explained.
“What is so important — it is happening now in Donald Trump’s backyard — but it has been happening across the country,” Enten said on “Erin Burnett Outfront” Tuesday night. “We have seen these massive shifts in these special elections.”
“Historically speaking,” he added, “special elections have forecasted what will happen in the midterm elections.”
Gregory defeated Trump-endorsed Republican Jon Maples by fewer than 800 votes out of more than 33,000 ballots cast in the Palm Beach-anchored district, which includes Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort and residence. In November 2024, Republican Mike Caruso had cruised to victory by 19 percentage points.
Caruso left the seat vacant when he resigned in August to become Palm Beach County clerk and comptroller.
“[What] we’ve seen so far is a shift to the Democrats on average of 12 points [from 2024],” Enten said Tuesday.
“I went all the way back, since I was in high school, back to the 2005-2006 cycle, and every single time that a party outperformed the presidential baseline in the next midterm election, what we saw was, five out of five times that party went on to win the US House of Representatives,” he went on.
“So what is happening right now in Mar-a-Lago is unlikely to stay in Mar-a-Lago. It is likely to expand nationwide and to expand in the midterm elections as well.”
Republicans have long been seen as the underdogs in the Nov. 3 midterms. Since 1938, the party in control of the White House has lost House seats in all but two half-term elections — 1998 and 2002.
Republicans currently hold a 218-214 House majority with three vacancies, meaning they need a historic midterm overperformance to keep the chamber.
A Democratic House will almost certainly launch an onslaught of investigations into Trump, his family, and allies, creating political headaches for the president during his final two years in office.
Trump is keen on avoiding that fate and plans to keep a robust campaign schedule, as The Post previously reported.
