It wouldn’t be a Grand Slam if Daniil Medvedev didn’t have to rescue himself with an epic comeback in the early rounds.
The Russian, who entered the Australian Open fresh off a title at ATP Brisbane, had to storm back from a two-set deficit against giant-killer Fabian Marozsan on Thursday morning to get through to Round 4.
It was a massive result for Medvedev, as he was starting to build momentum after a down year in 2025.
Medvedev now faces rising American Learner Tien with a spot in the quarterfinals on the line.
Tien has won two of the three meetings between these two, including a stunner in last year’s Australian Open.
Medvedev vs. Tien odds, prediction
It’s been a promising start to the tournament for Tien.
The 20-year-old was dispatched in the second round in Brisbane, but he’s answered a few tricky tests in the early portion of the Australian Open.
He had to grind out a five-set victory against fellow American Marcos Giron in Round 1, and then put together comprehensive victories against Alexander Shevchenko and Nuno Borges in his subsequent matches.
That’s not necessarily a gauntlet, but it’s a stern test for a young player who is still trying to find his footing inside the top 30.
Tien will take a step up in weight class in Round 4, but this is an opponent he is very familiar with already.
It’s really tricky to prepare for Daniil Medvedev.
The 29-year-old is an immense talent and an extremely athletic defender, but he’s also mercurial, unorthodox, and downright entertaining.
You need to have a Plan A, B, C, and D when you’re taking on the Moscow native.
Tien is a gifted offensive player already, and what he’s accomplished before his 21st birthday seems to be flying under the radar a bit, but what is most impressive is his ability to adapt in matches that zig and zag.
You can be rest assured that this match will do just that.
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Medvedev has proven time and again that he can be messy, but he’s also shown an almost unmatched relentlessness in best-of-5 matches.
He is one of the kings of the comeback, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see him need to pull another rabbit out of his hat against Tien.
This one should be a thriller, and there is value in backing it to go the distance.
The Play: Over 4.5 sets (+210, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
