College football Week 5 predictions: Best bets, picks against the spread

Keelon Russell, 19, had thrown 15 career passes and spent the summer battling to be Alabama’s starting quarterback.

Kamario Taylor, 19, had made two winless starts at Mississippi State, entering this season as a Heisman uber-long shot (150/1) at a program that has won double-digit games once this century. 

But on Saturday in Starkville, one of the unlikely Heisman contenders could become the undefeated front-runner. 

Russell has been a force since a shaky start at Kentucky, throwing for 685 yards, with nine total touchdowns and no interceptions in his past two games. But Taylor is the breakout star of this young season, showcasing the talent and poise that could make him a future No. 1 draft pick. 

The nation’s third-ranked offense has led the Bulldogs to wins over three power-conference opponents this season, with Taylor completing nearly 70 percent of his passes and leading the team to its first win over a ranked team in 12 years with a fourth-quarter comeback in Missouri. 

With the support of a top 15 ground game, Taylor can lift his team to new heights against a defense that ranks 88th in yards allowed per passing attempt (7.8).

The local kid has been waiting his whole life for a moment like this, leading MISSISSIPPI STATE (+6) against the juggernaut that has been torturing his boyhood team for decades. 

Pittsburgh (+3) over VIRGINIA TECH

“Enter Sandman” worked better in The Bronx. In their first home game against a power-conference team since going 2-5 at Lane Stadium last season, the Hokies face a Pitt defense that hasn’t allowed more than 14 points in any game this season and a quarterback (Mason Heintschel) who went 4-0 on the road for the Panthers last season. 

Penn State (-2.5) over NORTHWESTERN

The Wildcats have waited more than two years to open the new $870 million Ryan Field, but the Nittany Lions have even more motivation following their fourth-quarter meltdown against Wisconsin. 

Notre Dame (-21) over NORTH CAROLINA

Bill Belichick has suffered four losses by at least 21 points since coming to Chapel Hill. Now, he faces a national power for the first time. The Irish are riding a program-best streak of 14 straight wins by double digits — they have won their past five road games by an average of nearly 30 points — led by the nation’s No. 1 scoring defense (8.3 points per game). 

MINNESOTA (+5.5) over Michigan

Outside of a visit from UTEP, the Wolverines have averaged fewer than 17 points in three other games decided by an average of three points. The Gophers — coming off a win at Washington — get the first road game of the season for Bryce Underwood, who averaged 0.67 touchdown passes and completed 57 percent of his passes away from home last year. 

HOUSTON (-12.5) over UCF

Scott Frost is 0-6 on the road since returning to the Knights. At least he’ll always have the 2017 “national championship.” 

Vanderbilt (+24.5) over GEORGIA

Coming off a statement blowout of Oklahoma, Kirby Smart will have trouble getting his guys up for a visit from the Commodores, especially with a trip to Alabama seven days away. Clark Lea is 12-3-1 against the spread as an underdog since 2024. 

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MISSOURI (+5) over Florida

Ole Miss couldn’t handle the high of its emotional home win over LSU, following it by stumbling in its trip to Florida. Now, the inexperienced Gators are put in a similar position after securing their highest ranking in six seasons. The Tigers are 21-3 at home and a nation-leading 8-1 against the spread after a loss since 2023. Austin Simmons (11 touchdowns, zero interceptions) should go off against the nation’s 118th-ranked pass defense. 

IOWA (+14) over Ohio State

Kinnick Stadium remains one of the toughest places to play in the country. The Hawkeyes (5-1-1 against the spread as an underdog since 2024) have only lost two home games by double digits in the past 12 years, and the atmosphere should be as electric as ever, following a last-second win at Michigan. The Buckeyes’ most recent visit to Iowa City came in 2017, when Urban Meyer’s title hopes blew up in a stunning blowout loss. 

TENNESSEE (-7) over Auburn

The Volunteers are a legit playoff contender, thanks to a defense that nearly helped pull off an upset of top-ranked Texas. Their issues on the offensive line are an even bigger liability for the Tigers, who will be playing their first road game and rank 133rd in the nation in sacks allowed per game (3.5). 

BYU (-6.5) over TCU

The Cougars are coming off a bye and haven’t lost to an unranked team in nearly two years, including a 44-13 win over TCU last season. Former Harvard quarterback Jaden Craig lost his first two power-conference games to underwhelming opponents (North Carolina, UCF), throwing two interceptions, no touchdowns, and taking seven sacks. Now he faces a team that is 27-4 in the past three seasons. 

Texas Tech (-13) over COLORADO

It’s a good thing the Buffaloes locked up Deion Sanders — who is now 12-23 against power-conference teams — to an extension with three years left on his original deal. Sanders will attempt to spark change by calling on Isaac Wilson, the younger brother of the Jets’ former No. 2 overall pick. What could go wrong? 

Washington (+9.5) over USC

In their past three games, the Trojans have allowed 30 points to Louisiana, 35 to Rutgers and 41 to Oregon’s backup quarterback. The back door will always remain open against USC’s 105th-ranked pass defense. 

CLEMSON (+16.5) over Miami

The outcome shouldn’t be in doubt, but the Hurricanes — who won only two of five road games by double digits last season — are ill-prepared for primetime in Death Valley, entering with the 108th-ranked strength of schedule. Dabo Swinney doesn’t need to turn back the clock. He just needs to cover as the biggest underdog he’s ever been as a head coach. 

Indiana (-24) over RUTGERS

As good as the Scarlet Knights made themselves feel by handing a 58-7 beating to the Bison of Howard, Greg Schiano will now return to the other end of a beatdown, having lost against top-10 teams by an average of more than 30 points per game since returning to Rutgers. The defending champs are due for their first cover of the season. 

Best bets: Notre Dame, Vanderbilt, BYU 

This season: 34-26 (8-4 best bets)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Howie Kussoy has long been the New York Post’s main handicapper in college basketball (since 2011) and college football (since 2013).