Betting on conference tournaments always adds a layer of variance to handicapping a matchup.
Narratives do play a role, but sometimes they are difficult to predict.
The Horizon League tourney has reached the semifinals, and given its competitive balance near the top of the league, I prefer to side with teams playing better.
No team is hotter than Robert Morris (22-10), which has won and covered in eight straight games.
The second-seeded Colonials face third-seeded Detroit Mercy (16-14) on Monday as a 4.5-point favorite, with a total of 147.5 points.
The other Horizon League semifinal features top-seeded Wright State (21-11) battling seventh-seeded Northern Kentucky (20-13) in the opener.
Robert Morris won both regular-season meetings against Detroit Mercy.
They won by eight points on the road on Jan. 2, emerging with an 85-77 win, and then by 11 at home on Feb. 25 with a 73-62 triumph.
There is not much reason to think this plays out differently, especially factoring in recent form.
The Colonials are 10-5-1 against the spread (ATS) as a favorite this season, and have not lost since a Jan. 31 setback against Purdue Fort Wayne.
They also have not played in a competitive game in more than a month, having won by at least 10 points in six straight games.
Betting on College Basketball?
Their last single-digit win came Feb. 7 when they beat Youngstown State, 72-66, on the road.
The Titans have also performed well against the betting market, but I still favor Robert Morris in this third clash between the teams.
I have a 104-84-2 ATS record in this Post sports section, and my next play is Robert Morris -4.5 points against Detroit (-126, DraftKings).
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.