The college sports landscape has drastically changed with athletes now allowed to receive financial compensation.
That has significantly impacted recruiting for service academies, which still do not pay players or fully participate in NIL.
Consequently, they are unable to field the same quality of rosters they previously did because they are now often losing the recruiting wars to schools that can.
There is no better example of this than Air Force men’s men’s basketball.
The Falcons are 0-15 in conference play after a combined 3-35 record the previous two seasons. Prior to that, they would win around four or five Mountain West games each year.
Additionally, Air Force is usually uncompetitive in its losses.
It is just 4-11 against the spread (ATS) in conference games with three of those covers coming by a half-point. However, when the Falcons fail to cover, it’s usually by a wide margin so the betting market is still struggling to price this team correctly.
The Falcons host UNLV on Saturday as a 15.5-point favorite with a total of 152.5 points in what will be the first game since Air Force parted ways with suspended coach Joe Scott.
The Runnin’ Rebels defeated the Falcons in Las Vegas, 67-39, in January.
A lot has changed since then, but ultimately there is a wide gap between Air Force and the other teams in the bottom half of the conference.
The Falcons have lost every home game by double digits and some by more than 20 points.
UNLV coach Josh Pastner has tweaked his starting lineup the past couple of games, trying to improve a bottom-tier defense.
Betting on College Basketball?
The Rebels also commit the conference’s most fouls per game and are coming off a disappointing home loss to Colorado State.
I think all that translates to a focused effort that does not look past a weak opponent.
I have a 98-83-2 ATS record in The Post’s sports section. My next pick is UNLV laying 15.5 points at Air Force (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook).
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.
