Russia has begun to remove its last remaining weapons from the Syrian port of Tartous.
The decision of Syria’s new authorities to end a 49-year lease is a bitter blow to Moscow, which had relied on it as Russia’s only naval base in the Mediterranean. its loss will, for instance, severely complicate Russian efforts to resupply its troops in Libya, and Sub-Saharan Africa.
But while Vladimir Putin’s fortunes are waning, China is filling the gaps – having ovrtaken its strategic ally in arms exports to Africa.
In the deal with Russian construction company Stroytransgaz signed just six years ago, Russia pledged to spend £300m million to the port’s modernisation.
And Moscow had hoped to persuade Syria’s new masters Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to allow it to keep a foothold at both the port and its Hmeimim air base in Western Syria – strategic bases which gave Russia access to the Middle East, Libya and the Mediterranean Sea.
But with Russia having carried out air strikes against HTS in support of deposed ruler Bashar Assad, this seemed unlikely.
A vast arsenal of military weapons and valuable equipment, including advanced S-400 air defence systems, w finally being transported away last night after Syria gave three Russia tankers permission to dock.
“There is no comparable alternative base for the [Russian Navy] in the region,” said a British military intelligence source.
“Its ability to logistically support both its military and its private military contractors in Africa, as well as limiting the repetitional damage incurred through the fall of the Assad regime, will almost certainly be priorities for the Russian government.”
And it is not the only blow to Russian prestige.
Even before its ejection from Syria, Russia had been displaced by China as the biggest arms exporter to Africa.
At least 21 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa received major-arms deliveries from China between 2019 and 2023, according to the IISS think tank.
Before its war with Ukraine, Russia had a 26% arms market share in arms sales in sub-Saharan Africa, compared to China’s 21% stake.
But its ability to export arms is now severely hampered and China has filled the vacuum, depriving Moscow of vital revenue.
Though China’s share has fallen to 19%, it now exceeds Russia’s stake of just 10%.
While China and Russia are allies, they are engaged in a race for Africa’s mineral resources.
Russia has been slowly building up its influence in the continent.
Using Libya as a hub, it has deployed 3,000 former Wagner mercenaries, pilots and technical assistants now answering directly to Moscow under the new “Africa Expeditionary Corps”.
The troops are being used to provide dictatorships with “regime survival packages” – offering security in return for unfettered access to mineral resources such as gold, diamonds, uranium, cobalt, nickel, chromium.
The loss of the Tartous port facility, however, is expected to further frustrate Moscow’s ability to resupply them effectively, and this could, in turn, impact on its ability to extract minerals.
Though popularity for China’s costly Belt and Road Initiative investments has declined, Beijing’s influence is still formidable, as is its reach for mineral acquisition.
“China has built up a dominant position in the trade of essential minerals, rare earths and copper out of Africa,” said Professor Nick Westcott of SOAS University of London,
“China does not have a monopoly. But it is dominant, and the rest of the world needs to compete more vigorously.”
