Iran is just days away from having the material needed to build a nuclear bomb, experts have warned, with US defence officials and European intelligence agencies bracing for a critical moment when Tehran could shift from enrichment to weaponisation. Gregg Roman, Executive Director of the Middle East Forum, laid out the stark reality, saying: “Iran possesses 275 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% purity – close to the 91% weapons-grade threshold. The jump from 60% to 90% enrichment represents just 10% of the total enrichment work.” Pentagon assessments back this up, showing Tehran can produce weapons-grade uranium for a bomb in less than one week.
“The West is bracing for a possible point of no return. Covert diplomacy continues, but the window is closing. Preventing Iran from crossing this line is now a race against time.” Mr Roman pointed to key technical indicators signaling Iran’s move beyond mere posturing, saying: “Uranium enriched to 83.7% at Fordow, computer modeling and metallurgy experiments for weapons design, uranium metal production with no civilian applications, work on explosive bridge wire detonators, plus the construction of underground facilities at Natanz that are impossible to target by airstrikes, further show Iran’s intentions.”
Procedural tripwires to watch for include “shifting IR-6 or IR-8 centrifuge cascades to 90% enrichment, expelling IAEA inspectors, converting enriched uranium to metal, or renewed high-explosive tests at military sites.”
He added that Austrian intelligence confirms Tehran runs an active nuclear weapons programme aiming at regional domination. “Iran could have 5-6 weapons’ worth of material within two weeks and a nuclear device within six months.” Intelligence warning time “has shrunk from months to weeks”.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has described the nuclear decision as “political,” meaning the regime can order weaponisation moves when the leadership decides the timing is right.
Diplomatic channels remain open but fragile. Mr Roman said: “While intermediaries carry limited messages on prisoner swaps and maritime incidents, the real dispute is irreconcilable – Iran insists on maintaining enrichment while the US demands zero enrichment.”
The implications of Iran obtaining nuclear weapons would be profound.
It would mark a gamechanger in Middle Eastern security, granting Tehran unprecedented leverage. The regime would gain confidence to push missile and proxy wars without fear of effective retaliation.
The strategic balance would shift dramatically, forcing regional actors and Western allies to reassess defence and diplomatic strategies.
US President Donald Trump has repeatedly warned of the dire risks.
He recently said: “We cannot allow a hostile regime to have the capability to build a nuclear bomb.”
His administration has combined crippling sanctions with threats of military action in bid to stop Iran’s nuclear programme.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has called Iran’s nuclear ambitions “existential.”
He urged the world to “stop Iran at all costs” before it can threaten Israel or the wider region with nuclear weapons.