Russia would fight a war with NATO in a considerably different way to how it is currently engaged in conflict with Ukraine, an expert has warned. The war in Ukraine has seen Russia sacrifice money and men at a significant scale, something that would be unsustainable should it go to war with NATO.
Financial Strategist David Roche wrote for the Royal United Services Institute that despite the significant pressure war in Ukraine has placed on the Russian economy, it would be capable of opening up a second front against NATO, although it would have to significantly alter the way in which it fights. He wrote: “There is a commonly held view that Russia cannot sustain a new front against NATO or the rest of Europe because its economy is a mess and it is already being drained by its aggression in Ukraine. And indeed, the Russian economy is a mess.”
He continued: “If Russia were to open another front with Europe, it would seek to avoid a war of attrition like in Ukraine.
“The war aims would be to reduce Europe to subservience.”
It is believed that Russia would conduct so-called “grey zone” warfare, utilising weapons such as disinformation, cyber warfare and direct sabotage as opposed to purely conventional tactics.
Russia currently spends between 10 and 12% of its GDP on the war in Ukraine, with the Russian economy largely centred around the war effort.
According to Roche, the financial impact of the war will be felt for years to come as the country continues to pay sign on bonuses for new soldiers, wages of more soldiers than in peacetime and commits to continue paying legacy costs owed to the families of lost and injured soldiers, something that it will continue to accrue as the war continues.
All of this comes amid falling GDP and the continued impact of international sanctions.
Many analysts have debated how long Russia can continue to sustain such a high level of expenditure, but Roche believes that it can continue to finance its war, at least in the short term.
He added: “The day of reckoning for the Russian economy is still rather a long way off.
“Of itself, the economy could stagger on like this for 3-5 years. Russia is likely to remain an economy in decline judged by almost any calculus, except in its ability to wage war.
“And that it can and will do. For Russian civilians, prospects don’t look great. But domestic revolution is unlikely.
“Of course, in the long term the ‘war economy’ is unsustainable. But the deterioration is not likely to constitute a ‘real and present relief’ for the rest of us, alas.”
