Sharp money runs counter to conventional wisdom in this matchup.
The 0-6 Los Angeles Chargers come in as a 6.5-point underdog to the Rams, a number that I expected to get over a touchdown, but no one is taking the bait it seems.
This price has stayed steady for the whole week as Jim Harbaugh’s group come off a bye week to think about what has happened in this already lost season before the calendar even switched to November.
I’ll just say this outright, statistically, the Chargers are the worst team in football, coming in at No. 32 in DVOA and No. 32 in EPA per play on offense.
They have the worst passing offense in the league, per EPA, and are the third-worst in rushing offense EPA.
You will be hard-pressed to find anything statistical to point to when looking for a reason to bet on the Chargers this week.
As always in the betting market, though, is this core principle: buy low, sell high.
The Chargers quite literally couldn’t be lower.
And while I think that 6.5-points is a respectable number that slightly factors in the upside that we thought this Chargers team had going into the season, I’ll still take Harbaugh to cook some fixes up on offense to fix them at least a little bit.
Mike McDaniel is still the playcaller – we think – but it won’t be for long if they lose this game.
Betting on the NFL?
My model has the Rams as point favorites, and it’s extremely rare that I ignore something like that.
Fade me if you wish; I’m taking the Chargers moneyline.
PREDICTION: Chargers moneyline (+250, theScore Bet)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
