Cam Schlittler has all but wrapped up the American League Cy Young Award.
The Pinstriped phenom is a -25000 favorite to become the seventh Yankee to win the honor at bet365 Sportsbook, and the biggest prediction markets, Kalshi and Polymarket, have him priced at 96 percent. There are no sure things in baseball nor in betting, but this one is pretty darn close.
While Schlittler will be making room for at least one award this winter, a debate has begun to spark up about whether the 25-year-old should also garner heavy consideration for another: AL MVP.
No pitcher has won the award in either league since Clayton Kershaw did so for the Dodgers in 2014.
Kershaw’s stat line that season was impeccable. He went 21-3, pitched to a 1.77 ERA and 0.86 WHIP, and racked up 239 strikeouts against just 31 walks in 198 1/3 innings. By season’s end, the future Hall-of-Famer had a WAR of 8.2.
Plenty has changed in baseball in the 12 years since Kershaw dominated the league, but Schlittler’s resume pops just as much. He leads the league in innings pitched, ERA, WHIP, and scoreless starts, and he’s second in strikeouts and quality starts. His 5.9 WAR at FanGraphs lags behind just Kansas City’s Bobby Witt Jr. (6.5) and Houston’s Yordan Alvarez (6.0) in the American League.
Alvarez, who was a Triple Crown threat for much of the year, is the -4000 favorite to be named AL MVP. Schlittler is currently priced at 50/1 at bet365 Sportsbook, making him the third-favorite, sandwiched between Tampa Bay’s Junior Caminero and Witt Jr.
Caminero, who leads the American League with 41 home runs, is 14/1. Witt is 125/1.
Those odds suggest that the race is over. At -4000, Alvarez owns a 97.6-percent implied probability. Kalshi has it a shade lower at 89 percent. If that was the case, why did the Schlitter-for-MVP talks get so loud that his teammates shared their thoughts?
The answer is because the right-hander has a legitimate claim to the award. Not only by the numbers, but also by the literal meaning of the award. Who was the most valuable player to his team in 2026?
With Gerrit Cole, Max Fried, and Carlos Rodon all injured for large chunks of the season, Schlittler was the only Yankee starter that Aaron Boone was able to send out every five days. He took that responsibility head-on in his second season in the majors, delivering a 1.95 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and 228 strikeouts in 184 2/3 innings so far.
Without that level of dominance, the Yankees could be scrapping for a wild-card spot; instead, they’re still in the hunt for the best record in the American League.
Schlittler has two starts remaining, likely against the Diamondbacks on Saturday and a potentially massive one versus the Rays on Thursday. If he is able to replicate what he did in his most recent outing against the Mets in those final two appearances, he’ll have plenty of voters thinking long and hard about whether he deserves this award.
At 50/1 odds this late in the season, it’s a chance worth taking.
The Play: Cam Schlittler to win AL MVP (50/1, bet365)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
