BYU (3-0) has rolled through the first chapter of the 2026 season without much fuss.
The Cougars crushed Utah Tech in Week 1, outlasted a strong Arizona team in Week 2 and then swatted aside Colorado State in Week 3. Things are going about as expected for Kalani Sitake’s team, which is what we’ve come to expect.
Things are not coming as easily for TCU.
The Horned Frogs were not projected to make much noise in 2026 after the departure of quarterback Josh Hoover, but it’s been messier than expected.
TCU opened with a loss to UNC in Ireland and was dealt a second loss by UCF after wins over Grambling State and Arkansas State.
The offense has been a real cause for concern, as quarterback Jaden Craig hasn’t fit like a glove since transferring from Harvard.
BYU vs. TCU odds, picks
The numbers suggest that BYU’s No. 10 ranking is flattering, but that doesn’t mean the Cougars aren’t a really solid outfit. Quarterback Bear Bachmeier hasn’t lit it up just yet, but we saw last season what the sophomore can do on any given Saturday.
TCU’s defense has been stout out of the gate, but it has yet to face an offense of this caliber and there is almost no room for error for the Horned Frogs because the offense can’t get going.
Craig was a sensible stop-gap for Sonny Dykes after Hoover’s transfer to Indiana, but it just hasn’t worked out well. He’s made too many mistakes, and is going to face an opportunistic, physical defense that will make life miserable if you’re off rhythm even just a little bit.
TCU’s run game has done some damage in recent weeks and will be crucial to alleviate some pressure off of Craig, but its facing a defense that is allowing just 3.3 yards per attempt, which is good enough for 32nd in FBS.
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Nothing in the numbers suggests BYU has been elite this season just yet, but the Cougars won’t need to be against a TCU side that is severely flawed with the ball.
I have a tough time seeing how the Horned Frogs keep up with BYU, which is coming off a bye week.
The Play: BYU -6.5 (-110, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
