It’s another game where a big offense could be on display this weekend.
Joe Burrow hopes to come back with a vengeance for Cincinnati as the Bengals 3.5-point favorites in this home matchup against the Buccaneers.
Tampa Bay just paid Baker Mayfield big money for his arm and I think both teams air it out here.
The Bengals had the 30th-ranked defense in the NFL in DVOA last year, and while the team invested real capital on that side of the ball, I’m not sure they’ll be much better this year.
The Buccaneers have a fully healthy offense for the first time since early 2025.
Zac Taylor’s group allowed 6.2 yards per play last season, the worst in the league in a historically bad season.
So while the Bengals did invest more in their defense by adding ex-Giants defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence, it appears they’ll be without Shemar Stewart, who is doubtful.
I’m seriously dubious those defensive weaknesses are fixed.
It’s possible that Burrow comes in here with a renewed attitude as one of the NFL’s most elite quarterbacks, but I want the hook here to keep this within a field goal.
Betting on the NFL?
Burrow has played in a lot of one-possession games of late, with nine of his last 15 starts ending within eight points.
We’re going to target the Over here in an aggressive way.
THE PLAY: Over 49.5 total points (-110, Fanatics) | Over 58 total points (+230, BetMGM)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
