France has been plunged into political chaos following the unceremonious ousting of Prime Minister Michel Barnier and, with it, his Macronist agenda for the EU’s second largest economy.
Marine Le Pen – leader of France’s nationalist National Rally party – now has power in her sights. Her party, with its commanding presence in the country’s National Assembly, joined Leftist groups to oust Barnier over his EU-backed deficit-busting budget.
The motion of no confidence against the former Brexit negotiator was on the strength of his 2025 budget which included €60bn in tax increases and spending cuts, something Le Pen saw as a continuation of President Emmanuel Macron’s policies and designed to penalise the French working class.
For the EU, this represents a catastrophe, especially coming soon after the government of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz collapsed. France’s deficit remains sky high and hopes of reducing it quickly have now gone out of the window.
While Le Pen is also facing embezzlement charges – something her supporters claim is politically motivated – she remains odds-on favourite to win the next French presidential election, something which could plunge the EU into further chaos given her views on everything from the euro to migration.
What makes Barnier’s ousting all the more startling isn’t just the fact he has only been in office three months but because Le Pen’s party had previously seen Barnier as a workable partner given his recent conversion to tighter immigration policies.
But, opposition to the budget aside, Le Pen’s main objective might be to get President Macron to fall on his sword quickly.
On the one hand, Macron has options for a new PM including armed forces minister Sebastien Lecornu as well as interior minister and immigration hawk Bruno Retailleau. The Left wants someone from their side to succeed Barnier, but that seems extremely unlikely after Lucie Castets was rejected mere months ago.
On the other, Macron’s position is becoming increasingly untenable given his responsibility for the current chaos.
The President is now between a rock and a hard place. Brussels is breathing down his neck over the country’s colossal deficit. However, while Macron has executive powers to wield, the more he does so the less democratic his term in office looks and the less legitimacy he will have in the eyes of the French people.
Le Pen and National Rally have now gained the upper hand (so long as they don’t overplay it) with Macron and the EU on the backfoot, the latter shuddering at the possibility of one of the EU’s two leading powers coming under the control of a Eurosceptic immigration hawk like Le Pen.
This is a far cry from the more cohesive EU of 2016 when Britain voted to leave the bloc. Today, this is a fractured, polarised and unhappy “union” with a sclerotic economy and without clear direction on its place in the world.
France’s political system is currently up in flames. Le Pen is closer than ever to power, while Macron is caught between a disgruntled French electorate and an impatient EU.
