The Braves outlasted the Phillies in Game 3 of the Wild Card Round on Thursday to clinch their first postseason series since defeating the Houston Astros in the 2021 World Series.
Their reward? A trip to Los Angeles to take on the two-time defending champion Dodgers.
Atlanta finished the regular season with the fourth-best record and fifth-best run differential, but the oddsmakers remain unmoved.
The Dodgers are -230 favorites to win the series, -217 to win Game 1on Saturday and are sitting atop the betting board at +200 odds to win the World Series.
Can the Braves upset the odds? Or is this just delaying the inevitable?
Braves vs. Dodgers Game 1 pick
The Dodgers are better across the board and have more paths to victory in a best-of-five series, and the odds reflect that.
Los Angeles has the better starting rotation, the deeper lineup and the edge in experience. But just because a team is stronger on paper and the more likely winner doesn’t mean it is a good bet. Everything comes down to price in betting, and this is a pretty lofty one to pay against the fourth-best club in the MLB.
Atlanta doesn’t profile as the top-to-bottom juggernaut that the Dodgers are, but the Braves are set up to be a really pesky opponent.
Their lineup isn’t relentless, but it’s poised to be a thorn in your side. Drake Baldwin, Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olso and Michael Harris II give Atlanta a serious threat at the top of the order, and there’s some pop behind them with the likes of Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies and Mauricio Dubon.
There’s no Shohei Ohtani in that mix, but six different players on the Braves hit at least 19 homers in 2026.
Doing damage against Yoshinobu Yamamoto is a tall order, but the Braves could get him at the best possible time. He hasn’t pitched since Sept. 23, and has made just three starts in the last month. He’ll be fresh, but possibly out of rhythm. That’s the hope, at least.
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And that’s really the hope across the board. The Dodgers haven’t played an important game of baseball in a long time. They coasted to the NL West title, and were never under serious pressure of losing the first-round bye, so it’s excusable that the two-time defending champs were just counting the days until October.
The Braves, meanwhile, just played a best-of-three series against one of their most hated rivals and came out on the other side.
If you’re going to back Atlanta at any point in this series, it makes sense to do it in Game 1.
The Play: Braves to win Game 1 (+177, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
