Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is predicted to win 135 seats at the next general election, according to a major new poll. The survey by JL Partners found that Labour would lose 100 constituencies, mainly in the Red Wall, to the insurgent party.
Reform is just behind the Tories, who are tipped to win 136 MPs. The poll puts Sir Keir Starmer’s party in the lead with 218 seats. James Johnson, JL Partners co-founder, said: “If you think international politics feels unstable at the moment, try a Parliament that looks like this.
“We are obviously years out, but if the vote shares end up looking like they do in our current projection, the UK would be headed for serious uncertainty.
“But another basic fact remains: Labour would still be the largest party for so long as the Right is split.
“My central view is that, as long as neither Reform nor the Conservatives are able to edge the other out or come to a deal, Labour is on course for re-election in 2029.”
The vote share is split between 26.8% for Labour, 23.7% for the Tories and 23% for Reform.
The Lib Dems would win 70 seats, the SNP 41, 23 for independent candidates, five for the Greens and three for Plaid Cymru.
Reform is runner-up in 98 Labour seats, suggesting they are now the main opposition for Sir Keir’s party.
The Polaris model used by the pollsters uses the council by-election results that have taken place since the 2024 General Election to predict how those electors would vote now.
It comes as Labour has gone on the attack against Reform in recent weeks.
