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Bills vs. Steelers prediction: ‘Thursday Night Football’ NFL preseason picks, best bets

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Last updated: August 27, 2026 7:54 pm
amedpost
Published: August 27, 2026
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Everyone wants to see Drew Allar sling it, but they’re missing the boat on the real quarterback under the hood. 

The Pittsburgh Steelers face the Bills in their final preseason tune-up before the regular season kicks off, and, perhaps surprisingly, Buffalo is favored by 2.5 points. 

Based on all of the information available to us at the time of writing, only a few starters will play in this game, but none of the quarterbacks, as Allar and Will Howard will split duties under center for the Steelers while Kyle Allen and Shane Buechele get most of the action for the Bills.

Bills coach Joe Brady told reporters that some starters would be out there, but not full units, which may be why the line moved a full point from -1.5 to -2.5 and even a flat 3 at some books.

The Steelers looked awful last time out against the Jets, losing 17-0 as Howard threw two brutal interceptions that cost them any chance at keeping it close with Gang Green. 

For the Bills, Allen has been electric through two preseason games, completing an incredible 24-for-28 (85.7 percent) of his passes for 236 yards. 

So the Bills are rightful favorites here, as you’d think Allar will struggle against the handful of Buffalo regulars that will be out there ahead of the start of the NFL regular season. 

Considering the Steelers’ poor performance last time out while the Bills look very buttoned up, I’ll take the favorites to cover here.


Buffalo Bills quarterback Kyle Allen (11) at Huntington Bank Field.
Buffalo Bills quarterback Kyle Allen (11) has been electric for the Bills in preseason. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Buffalo has smashed the competition so far in the preseason, winning by 15 points and 24 points in their first two games. 

Pittsburgh threw for 184 yards on 22-for-38 passing and two interceptions last time out, and while Allar is the eye candy that everyone wants to see, don’t be mesmerized by it. 


Catch up on The Post’s NFL betting previews and predictions for the 2026 season


Allen and Co. will have some starters out there, which should help Buffalo run away with this one again. 

THE PLAY: Bills -2.5 (-114, FanDuel)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.

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