Nobody circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills.
Josh Allen put on his cape against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday when the Bills took them down 27-24 in the Wild Card round.
Buffalo opened as a 1.5-point favorite against the Denver Broncos earlier this week, a number that has come down significantly, with the Bills now being treated as the underdog in this road matchup.
Mile High is a tough place to play at elevation for Buffalo, and the sharp bettors were all over Denver early this week, while the public is slamming the Bills.
BetMGM reports to The Post that the Bills are the second most bet on team to cover this weekend (ticket count), behind only the 49ers, and the third most bet in terms of money.
Denver’s defense ranks No. 5 overall in DVOA, but its offense grades out at No. 15.
Buffalo is essentially the inverse, ranking No. 20 in defensive DVOA and No. 4 in offensive DVOA.
Bills vs. Broncos prediction
Denver is a solid team, no doubt, and neither of these teams is perfect by any means. My worry is that the Broncos do fall behind in games and comebacks against the Bills, who dominate time of possession, making it nearly impossible to pull off.
The Bills lead the NFL in time of possession by a mile, averaging 33:10 of ball control each game. Denver is no slouch either, coming in at 31:03.
You can run on the Bills typically are easy to run, averaging 5.2 yards per carry allowed the second worst in the NFL.
But in their last three games played, that number has plummeted down to 4.2 YPC, a more than respectable figure.
Driving more intrigue is that Buffalo is hoping to get back their nose tackle Ed Oliver, who opened his practice window this week and is listed as questionable.
He’s an important piece of this Bills puzzle.
For the game, we already know I like Buffalo, but there are a few props I’m targeting as well.
The Bills’ run defense struggles against man blocking and outside zone, according to Aaron Schatz; they allowed 5.7 YPC against man blocking and 5.1 YPC against outside zone.
We watched Bhayshul Tuten play well last week, and I suspect there’s some more success to be had here with lower totals.
Target RJ Harvey to go over 55.5 rushing yards at -111 on DraftKings.
The Bills are basically down to Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, and Brandon Cooks at wide receiver. So given that the Bills are throwing the kitchen sink at this game, I suspect Allen gets a ton of carries for the Bills.
Target over 7.5 rush attempts on BetRivers, coming in at -124.
Betting on the NFL?
Allen has cleared this total in every playoff game since 2023 (six games) and he had 11 carries last week for two touchdowns.
I also suspect he gets into the endzone again, so target these three props as you see fit this weekend.
PREDICTIONS: RJ Harvey over 55.5 rush yards (-111, DraftKings) | Josh Allen over 7.5 rush attempts (-124, BetRivers) | Allen anytime touchdown scorer (-105, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.