UK motorists have finally received some welcome news as petrol prices have dropped for the first time in two-and-a-half months, with experts predicting they “could fall to as low as 120p a litre”. This marks the first week-on-week decrease since June 6, when the average petrol price was 131.35p per litre, according to new figures.
Since then, prices have been on an upward trajectory, peaking at 134.39p last week before falling slightly to an average of 134.3p this week. Tony Redondo, founder of Newquay-based Cosmos Currency Exchange, suggested that prices could plummet to as low as 120p a litre.
He said: “This rare good news for UK motorists has a chance to get even better. Global oil prices have dropped to $63/barrel, down 13.79% on last year, on weaker demand from China, India, Brazil, and OPEC+ production increases, and oil prices are forecast to fall to $58 in the fourth quarter of this year and to $49 a barrel by March 2026.
“This could see prices at the pump in the UK drop to 120-125p/litre. The backdrop to these forecasts includes global growth slowing due to Trump’s tariffs, China’s EV transition reducing oil demand, and structural oversupply. However, in an unpredictable world, any sharp increase in geopolitical risks could reverse this trend quickly, but the fundamentals point to lower oil prices ahead.”
Samuel Mather-Holgate, Independent Financial Adviser at Swindon-based Mather and Murray Financial, said: “After the turmoil in the Middle East, finally some respite for motorists. It doesn’t look enough, but there is some good news on the forecourt. Now that the truce between Iran and Israel looks to be holding, global supply has resumed at normal levels and this commodity likes that certainty.
“Of course, with the tariffs kicking in, the US economy could tank later this year, and that could also be suppressing prices. The trajectory of the oil price is without doubt linked to the success or failure of Trump’s economic policies.”
Rob Mansfield, Independent Financial Advisor at Rootes Wealth Management, said: “It’s always nice to drive up to the pump and have a lower price than you expected. The market may be anticipating a thawing of tensions with Putin and a subsequent flow of Russian oil but that would seem premature.
“The war in Ukraine still looks to be in stalemate. Neither side seems minded to concede.”
Kundan Bhaduri, entrepreneur at London-based The Kushman Group, pointed out that British drivers are still facing some of the highest fuel prices in Europe.
He added: “A nine pence drop in petrol prices should not qualify as breaking news, but here we are celebrating crumbs like pigeons in Trafalgar Square. The fall from 134.39p to 134.3p reflects crude oil’s recent softening and marginally weaker demand as the summer driving season ends.
“Global oil prices have retreated from recent highs as US inventory builds and Chinese economic data disappoints, but this ain’t no trend. Petrol prices remain hostage to geopolitical theatre, refinery margins, and a Chancellor who treats fuel duty like her personal piggy bank.
“Even if crude oil collapsed tomorrow, UK drivers would still face the highest fuel taxes in Europe and a supply chain that moves prices up like a rocket and down like a feather.”