The Big 12 tournament has already tipped off in Kansas City and the game with the most intrigue is Kansas State vs. BYU.
The first-round matchup will feature freshman sensation AJ Dybantsa of the Cougars going head-to-head with dynamic junior scoring guard P.J. Haggerty.
The fact that BYU is playing this early in the tournament is shocking considering where it ranked in the AP polling just two months ago.
The Cougars ranked as high as ninth nationally at the start of conference tournament play, which, coincidentally, was right after they beat Kansas State by 10 on the road.
Things turned quickly for BYU, which lost nine of its last 14 games down the stretch and finished 9-9 in the Big 12 after a 4-0 start.
Despite their slide down the conference standings, the Cougars are still 10.5-point favorites over the Wildcats, who had the second-worst record in the conference.
Kansas State vs. BYU prediction, best bet
Dybantsa’s star power has been the central story for BYU this season, and his phenomenal play and impending exit to for the NBA Draft (unless, of course, he decides to stay in college) have overshadowed the actual results on the court.
BYU is an interesting case as we look forward to the tournament. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has them listed as a six-seed entering Tuesday’s games.
They opened the season with strong non-conference wins against Miami and Wisconsin and they had wins over Iowa State and Texas Tech late in the season.
Losses against lesser teams like Oklahoma State, West Virginia and Cincinnati pushed the Cougars into the middle of the pack in the conference standings.
Scoring hasn’t been much of an issue for BYU, but the defense fell off a cliff once the competition got tougher. The Cougars went from 34th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (97.8) through their first 17 games to 209th (110.7) over the final 14.
Kansas State began the calendar year with four straight losses and have won just three games in 2026.
Betting on College Basketball?
Outside of Haggerty’s scoring, there isn’t much to love about this team, and his scoring alone hasn’t been enough to make the Wildcats’ offense a threat after second-leading scorer Abdi Bashir jr. was sidelined with an injury in January.
BYU should come away with a comfortable win in this game, but with their struggles toward the end of the season, I don’t love betting them to cover a double-digit spread.
The Cougars finished the regular season 13-18 against the spread (ATS), including a 10-14 ATS record as favorites.
What stands out to me the most is Dybantsa’s point total prop. Some books have it listed as high as 28.5, with others going as low as 26.5.
He’s an awesome scorer, but those numbers look inflated based on his name recognition. Dybantsa has gone Over 28 points in just eight of his 31 games this season and he has gone Under his listed points props in 67 percent of his games this season.
I’ll fade the potential No. 1 overall pick in a game that he shouldn’t need to play a ton of minutes for the Cougars to win, especially with another game on the schedule Wednesday.
The Pick: AJ Dybantsa Under 28.5 points (-110, bet365)
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Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
