Things have fallen far for the Packers this season, but not to the extent anyone expected.
Green Bay now hosts the Bears in Lambeau Field as underdogs, despite Chicago missing running back Kyle Monangai and star quarterback Caleb Williams.
The line is currently at +1.5 on Fanatics Sportsbook, though that’s a far cry from where it was in the lookahead a few weeks ago.
The opening line had Green Bay favored by three, and that was with Caleb Williams expected to play.
Oddsmakers typically believe starting quarterbacks are worth at least 2.5-points against the spread compared to backups.
Yahoo Sports had previously said that oddsmakers on average believed that Williams was worth 4.8 points to the spread.
So if you add that to the spread, the Bears would be favored by six points.
That’s a nine point swing since the season began.
Has it been that bad? Yes and no.
Green Bay is 27th in DVOA compared to eighth for the Bears.
Though the Packers’ defense isn’t quite as bad as it looks. They’re 17th in yards per carry allowed, and 10th in yards per pass attempt allowed.
Their rushing offense is the worst in the league, which has been well documented.
But Chicago is allowing 7.3 yards per pass attempt, 22nd in the league.
I think the Packers should be able to throw the ball in this game; they basically have to win.
Add in that Tyson Bagent starts for Chicago, and I don’t see them keeping up with the Packers offense.
Betting on the NFL?
This is really just me buying low on the Packers, as Jordan Love is a big upgrade on Bagent.
Ben Johnson lost last at Lambeau Field and I am backing the Cheese Heads again this weekend.
PREDICTION: Packers moneyline (48.08 percent, Novig)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
