The Colorado Avalanche have essentially spent the entire regular season atop the betting board.
The Avs were one of a handful of teams, along with the Hurricanes, Oilers, Panthers, Golden Knights, and Stars, that entered the campaign as co-favorites, but Colorado separated from the pack with a historic start, going 16-1-3 in their first 20 games.
At the halfway point of the season, Colorado was 31-3-7 and in first place by a mile. They were also in a class of their own on the betting board. The Avs were +220 favorites at the Olympic Break, creating a ‘Colorado vs. the Field’ scenario.
Things feel very different these days.
While the Avs never lost hold of first place in the Central Division, and they’ve already clinched the Presidents’ Trophy, they did come back down to earth. Colorado has won just 19 of its last 35 games, and ranked 14th in points percentage in the NHL in that period.
It’s not as if Colorado was playing miserably during this stretch — it maintained a 98-point pace — but more that it wasn’t operating at the standard it set in the first half, and certainly not at the level of a team that was +220 to win the Stanley Cup.
The Avs did see their price drift during the second half, but they’re still at +300, a nose ahead of the Lightning (+425) and Hurricanes (+475), as we head into the last week of the season.
Those two heavyweights also have significant questions to answer ahead of the postseason.
For Carolina, it’s about a potential fatal flaw. One that we’ve seen haunt this team over and over in the postseason. The Hurricanes, once again, are going to go into the playoffs with a questionable goaltending tandem.
Long Island native Brandon Bussi was a revelation for the Canes in the first half of the season, but he’s been really poor down the stretch, which has opened the door for veteran Frederik Andersen to re-claim his spot as the team’s starter.
Andersen has posted decent numbers of late, and he’s got plenty of playoff experience, but he’s wilted in big moments for Carolina in recent seasons, often forcing Rod Brind’Amour to replace him as the tournament rolls on.
Betting on the NHL?
Carolina always bets on its ability to tilt the ice so significantly that its goaltending won’t pull it down, but that philosophy has yet to pay off in the business end of the postseason. Perhaps the eighth time is a charm.
The Lightning are in a similar spot to the Avalanche. Tampa Bay established itself as one of the favorites with a torrid stretch in the middle of the campaign, but the Bolts have significantly cooled off down the stretch. Tampa Bay is just 12-11-2 in its last 25 games and could finish as the No. 3 seed in the Atlantic Division. A few weeks ago, the Lightning were odds-on to finish atop the Atlantic.
Perhaps Tampa Bay and Colorado, two veteran teams with plenty of champions in the room, are pacing themselves for the playoffs, but it should still give you pause when you consider the price you have to pay in the futures market for both of these teams.
And while Colorado and Tampa Bay have putzed around for the second half, other contenders have surged. The Sabres have been the best team in hockey since the holidays, the Stars are not too far behind them, and the Senators are now the third-favorites to represent the Eastern Conference in the Stanley Cup thanks to a white-hot run down the stretch.
What was once painted as a top-heavy race for the Stanley Cup has been blown wide open, and that makes it pretty hard to stomach the prices being hung on the chalk as the season winds down.
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
