Bay Area drivers already facing some of the most expensive commutes in the nation could be thrust into even more rush-hour chaos if the region’s public transit system collapses, according to a study released Tuesday.
The Bay Area Rapid Transit system, known to millions as BART, is staring down a massive financial crisis as ridership remains far below pre-pandemic levels and officials scramble for new tax dollars to keep trains running.
The study by the San Francisco Bay Area Planning and Urban Research Association (SPUR) looked at the region’s three biggest highway bottlenecks during peak hour traffic — the Bay Bridge, Caldecott Tunnel and Interstate 680 — and what would happen if local public transportation systems don’t get funding to make up for severe budget deficits.
Transportation agencies are preparing for steep cuts as early as 2027.
During the morning commutes, the time traveled though those pathways would require an additional 15 to 33 minutes if service cuts happen, the study claimed. In the evening, drivers would need to account for 20 to 43 minutes added on to their current travel time.
For the Bay Bridge, drivers there would essentially see commutes more than double in duration, the study claimed.
The group alleged that transit cuts would force more people onto freeways, adding more than 498 million vehicle miles traveled each year after 430,000 people lose access to BART if their nearest station closes. The cuts could saddle commuters with $3,280 annually for fuel, tolls and parking. the group said.
There have been signs of improvement in BART ridership in recent months, but the system remains stuck in a massive financial hole. The agency faces annual deficits between $350 million and $400 million, and combined with other local transportation systems’ woes, there could be an an $800 million annual deficit next year.
BART has said it would close up to 15 stations, Caltrain has said it would close 10 stations, and the San Francisco Municipal Railway (known as Muni) may close 20 routes if new funding isn’t secured.
On local ballots in November, voters will be asked whether to increase sales taxes to pay for BART’s fiscal woes.
SPUR, an urban policy group, has strongly advocated for the ballot measure.
“This really paints a picture of how much worse life is going to get for people living in the Bay Area without transit,” Laura Tolkoff, transportation policy director at the association, told KQED.
Opponents of the study have dismissed it as a little more than a scare tactic to raise taxes, however.
Marc Joffe, a leading opponent of the tax measures and president of the Contra Costa Taxpayers Association, described the study as cow dung, which if “converted to electricity it would be sufficient to power BART and save us the cost of its humongous (utility) bill.”
