Bananas could disappear from supermarket shelves as climate change ravages the environments where they grow, experts have warned. The popular fruit is a key expert crop crucial to the economy of many countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. The UK imported around £589.8 million-worth of fresh or dried bananas and plantains in 2023.
But research predicts that around 60% of regions currently producing bananas will struggle to grow them in around 50 years. University of Exeter researchers used satellite images to map banana production, then estimated how climate change will affect growth and yields in key locations.
They predicted that countries such as Colombia and Costa Rica will be the most negatively impacted as they become too hot for optimal cultivation.
Meanwhile, Ecuador and parts of Brazil will fare better as the effects of climate change may be less severe there.
Study leader Professor Dan Bebber said: “Our findings are a stark reminder that climate change is not just an environmental issue but a direct threat to global food security and livelihoods.
“Without substantial investment in adaptation, including irrigation and heat-tolerant banana varieties, the future of export banana production looks uncertain.”
Possible adaptation strategies include expanding irrigation infrastructure, breeding heat and drought-tolerant banana varieties, and supporting producers to manage climate risks.
Prof Bebber added: “Bananas are one of the world’s most important fruits, not only for consumers but for millions of workers in producing countries.
“It’s crucial we act now to safeguard the industry against the dual threats of climate change and emerging diseases.”
The findings are published in the journal Nature Food.
