Ben Shelton took care of business in a three-set victory over Ugo Humbert on Thursday night.
The American may not have been at his best, but he came up with the goods in the big moments and was able to punch his ticket to the quarterfinals at ATP Washington.
Shelton will face another big server Friday in Alejandro Tabilo, but the American has almost all the edges in this battle of the southpaws.
The odds reflect that, as Shelton is a -340 favorite over the Chilean.
ATP Washington: Shelton vs. Tabilo pick
Shelton’s first two wins at the Washington Open have not been ones he will remember all that fondly.
They were scrappy more than dominant, and you could say that the former Florida Gator is pretty fortunate to still be in this tournament.
That said, Shelton did seem to find his form after the first set against Humbert.
After losing a tie-breaker to the Frenchman in the opening frame, Shelton got ahead early and stayed there in the next two. That’s been the recipe for success for the 23-year-old in his young career, especially against other big servers. Shelton doesn’t need to be perfect on return, but he needs to be clinical when he gets a chance to break.
He should have more than a few opportunities against Tabilo.
While the Chilean has some serious punch with his serve, it’s not up to the same standard as what Shelton faced against Humbert. Tabilo’s all-around game isn’t as polished as Shelton’s, either.
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That shows in Tabilo’s hard-court record, which is improving but is still uninspiring at just 13-12 over the last 52 weeks and 40-45 in his career.
Shelton and Tabilo have similar strengths, but the former ticks every box in this matchup, and he seems to have found his A-game at the perfect time.
The Play: Shelton -1.5 sets (-120, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
