David will meet Goliath on Friday night in Miami.
Lionel Messi and Argentina, the defending champions, are -1800 favorites to advance past Cape Verde, who qualified for the knockout rounds in their first-ever trip to the World Cup.
According to Transfermarkt, Argentina’s squad value is just under $920 million. Cape Verde’s roster checks in at $61.5 million.
That $860 million gap paints a picture of the task that lies ahead of this tournament’s Cinderella story.
However, this is nothing new for the Blue Sharks.
Drawn into a group with Spain, Uruguay, and Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde executed a terrific game plan by committing to playing disciplined defense and being fearless when they had the opportunity to counterattack.
Cape Verde held Spain, the pre-tournament favorites and current champions of Europe, scoreless in a nil-nil draw. They followed that up by coming from behind to draw Uruguay, which boasts a squad value of $410 million.
The Blue Sharks punched their ticket to the knockout round by holding their nerve against Saudi Arabia in a nil-nil draw. Cape Verde held Saudi Arabia to just 0.4 expected goals and three shots on target in that match.
Keeping a lid on Saudi Arabia may not seem like a huge accomplishment, but don’t forget that match was a must-win for the Falcons. They had to go for it, but Cape Verde gave them nothing.
Considering their expectations and opposition, Cape Verde’s defense was one of the most impressive units in the group stage. Argentina’s was right there with them.
La Albiceleste may be known for their offensive dynamoes, but it was Lionel Scaloni’s defense that was the team’s calling card.
Argentina conceded just one goal in the group stage — which came against Jordan in a meaningless match — and their three opponents, Algeria, Austria, and Jordan, created just 1.6 expected goals combined.
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The most interesting note from those performances is that Argentina didn’t seem too fussed about dominating possession. Algeria actually had more of the ball in their 3-0 loss to Messi’s bunch, while Austria was just behind at 46 percent.
Neither opponent generated anything of note, but it’s noteworthy because it tells us that Argentina is not the type of team that will go all out to win back possession when they turn the ball over. They’re much more comfortable playing a patient brand of soccer and waiting for an opportunity in transition or a moment of magic from Messi.
Don’t be shocked if we see Argentina take time to get comfortable in this match. The last thing they’ll want is to get punished for being too frisky against a side that has shown some promise on the counterattack. Uruguay learned that the hard way, and Spain almost did as well.
Cape Verde will happily oblige a patient, prodding approach from Argentina, as the longer this game remains scoreless, the better their chance of shocking the world.
Holding Messi and Argentina scoreless for 90 minutes is a monumental task. Still, Cape Verde’s defensive chops are legitimate, and their result against Spain will provide a blueprint for how they need to approach Friday’s showdown.
Argentina will almost certainly have enough to get through this test, but it may not be pretty. The Under 2.5 goals (+125, FanDuel) looks a savvy way to play this one.
The Play: Under 2.5 goals (+125, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
