While much of the northeast of the United States watches mounds of snow accumulate outside their windows, something else is piling up pretty quickly as well.
The prediction platform Kalshi is offering a market that lets users bet on the total amount of snow that will fall in New York City between Saturday, Feb. 21, and Tuesday, Feb. 24.
The blizzard, which has rocked much of the northeast of the United States, has captured the attention of bettors who look to profit on what will likely be a record-breaking storm.
As of noon Monday, the market has attracted more than $2 million in trading volume and the number could climb even higher before the day ends.
Local weather forecasts for snow totals in the five boroughs were projected to be between 12-18 inches ahead of Sunday, but those projections were rising steadily as the weekend wore on.
The bulk of the trades as of this writing are for an official total above 22 inches, with less than 40 percent of the market betting yes on more than 22 inches. The market seems to have settled on yes above 20 inches, which is at 90 percent as of Monday afternoon.
The NYC snowfall market opened on Friday evening, and Kalshi’s rules say it will only use measurements from the National Weather Service as the official source to determine the exact amount of snowfall in Central Park.
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Kalshi saw a significant jump in trades around 9:30 a.m. ET Monday morning, pushing the market from 19 inches to 22 inches within the span of about 30 minutes.
If Central Park does have more than 22 inches of snow by the end of the storm, it would would be the fourth-biggest snowstorm to hit the City since 1869, according to the National Weather Service’s tracking.
If it does, some amateur meteorologists could have a huge payday on their hands. We’ll see if the money continues to pile up as high as the snow does.
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Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
