Everything that can go wrong is going wrong in the Bronx right now.
The losses are starting to pile up for a Yankees team that has played awful baseball in June for the fourth year in a row.
Injuries have created some uncertainty, with Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Trent Grisham, Ryan McMahon and Max Fried all missing time.
Even with all the concerns, Cam Schlittler was arguably the brightest spot for the Yankees after his amazing start to the season.
Schlittler was so good for the first two months of the season — he amassed a 9-3 record with a 1.50 ERA in his first 12 starts — that he moved from 100/1 to the favorite to win the American League Cy Young. He was -125 to win at BetMGM entering his most recent start.
But even Schlittler isn’t immune to the June slump that has plagued the Pinstripes. In his two most recent starts, Schlittler has allowed 10 runs combined in nine innings pitched. If you include his outing against the Guardians at the beginning of June, he gave up more runs in those three losses than he did between March and May.
“It took me 30-plus starts to finally get my teeth kicked in,” Schlittler said after a loss against the Tigers in which he allowed a career-high four home runs. “There are lessons to be learned from this.”
Bettors should take heed. It would be easy to jump off the bandwagon now that Schlittler looks like he’s come back to earth, but he’s still the favorite to win the award and deservedly so.
Entering Wednesday’s games, Schlittler was +115 to win AL Cy Young with Dylan Cease listed at +325 and Drew Rasmussen listed at +700. The rest of the field is 17/1 or longer.
It’s natural to wonder if age and inexperience will work against Schlittler, but 18 games isn’t a small sample, and that’s not counting what we saw from him last season. He’s actually as good as advertised and still deserves to be the frontrunner.
His ERA jumped from 1.50 to 2.08 after a rough month, and that still leads the AL. He’s also the leader in WAR among AL pitchers with a 3.6 mark, second in WHIP (0.962) and second in strikeouts (123).
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Digging deeper into his Statcast data, his xERA (3.12) and xwOBA (.277) are only slightly higher than Cease’s and Rasmussen’s, his main competition. I’m willing to believe these past two games were a blip on the radar for Schlittler based on the strong evidence he’s shown this season that he’s the real deal.
From a betting value standpoint, it’s unlikely that Schlittler will be plus money to win AL Cy Young unless he completely falls apart. If he swings back the other way, or even has a second half that falls somewhere in the middle, books will likely keep him as the favorite based on the body of work we’ve seen so far.
I’m willing to bet on the eventual bounce back and grab Schlittler at +145 to win AL CY Young at his low point before his stock goes back up.
The Pick: Cam Schlittler AL Cy Young winner (+145, FanDuel)
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Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
