AUCKLAND, New Zealand — The U.S. women aren’t used to having to do math at the World Cup.
More often than not, the two-time defending champions have the top spot in the group locked up after the second match. Or it’s close enough that it’s basically a given.
Not only is that not the case now, the USWNT could actually find itself making history for all the wrong reasons in Tuesday’s group-stage finale against Portugal.
Because of the USWNT’s awful first half against the Netherlands on Thursday, they have to win or draw with Portugal to ensure a spot in the knockout rounds. Lose, and the Americans could be going home after the group stage for the first time ever at the World Cup or Olympics.
Think about that. The World Cup began in 1991, the Olympic tournament five years later, and not once has the USWNT failed to make it out of the group stage. In fact, with the exception of the 2016 Olympics, the U.S. women have gotten to the semifinals or better at every major tournament.
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There is a scenario where the Americans could lose and still advance if Vietnam beats the Netherlands and scores at least three goals. Given Vietnam has been outscored 5-0 in its first two games and was eliminated with its loss to Portugal, however, the chances of that are not good.
Which means the Americans need to win. Preferably by a large enough margin they maintain their advantage in goal differential – currently at plus-2 – over the Netherlands so they win the group and avoid the possibility of seeing England, Germany and France before the final.
Now you understand why the USWNT normally prefers to take care of business in the first two games.
“It’s just a little unfortunate that now first place in the group is up for grabs,” Alex Morga said.
But such is life when a team is loaded with talent and short on experience.
When someone says a team or a player needs to “learn how to win,” it sounds as if they’re trying to lower expectations or, if said after the fact, make excuses. But given there’s nothing like a World Cup game and no way to duplicate it, there is truth to it.
The USWNT came apart after giving up a goal in the 17th minute against the Netherlands, and it really wasn’t until Lindsey Horan got fired up by a hard tackle by Lyon teammate Danielle van de Donk that the Americans found their groove. Horan scored on the next play, a thunderous header off Rose Lavelle’s corner kick in the 62nd minute, and her teammates suddenly came alive.
The Americans peppered Dutch goalkeeper Daphne van Domselaar so often she’s going to be having nightmares about those paint-splattered jerseys. Trinity Rodman, after looking overmatched much of the day, nearly scored on a screamer across the mouth of the goal. Sophia Smith had a shot cleared off the line.
“I wish I could say, `Yeah, we’re going to come out and dominate every game.’ Because that’s what we want to do. That’s what we’re trying to do,” U.S. coach Vlatko Andonovski said. “But we’re playing good opponents.
“At a certain point in the game, there will be a dip in the form. There’ll be a dip in rhythm. Which is OK,” he added. “Now it’s how can we get out of those dips quicker so if we dominate for 60 minutes, we make it 70 or 75 minutes. That’s the thing we need to be better at.”
Not winning the group isn’t a catastrophe. The USWNT finished second in 2011 and still reached the final. It took some last-second heroics by Megan Rapinoe and Abby Wambach in the quarterfinals, but that’s a memory for a different story.
The point is, everything starts anew in the knockout rounds. Win the World Cup title, and no one will care or even remember how you got there.
But the USWNT has to get the math right first. If it doesn’t add up, the final result will be a major embarrassment.
World Cup Group E standings
- United States: 4 points, +2 goal differential – Next match vs. Portugal
- Netherlands: 4 points, + 1 GD – Next vs. Vietnam
- Portugal: 3 points, +1 GD – Next vs. USA
- Vietnam: 0 points, -5 GD – Next vs. Netherlands
Follow USA TODAY Sports columnist Nancy Armour on Twitter @nrarmour.
