An inside look at the Patriots-Broncos AFC Championship showdown at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver on Sunday afternoon:
Marquee matchup
Patriots left tackle Will Campbell vs. Broncos outside linebacker Nik Bonitto
Bonitto had 14 sacks this season. Campbell, a rookie who made his return from an MCL injury in Week 18 after missing Weeks 13-17, struggled against both the Chargers in the wild card and the Texans last week.
He allowed a strip sack in the win over the Chargers and another against Houston’s top pass rusher, Will Anderson Jr., who had three sacks and two forced fumbles in the game.
Because Bonitto is one of the best speed rushers in the game, Campbell likely will get some running back help chipping him to counter that speed.
The Broncos led the NFL with 68 sacks this season, which led the league.
Bonitto sacked Bills quarterback Josh Allen three times and forced two fumbles in the game last week.
Four downs
Rush to judgment: Whichever team runs the football better in this game will likely be the winner—_ particularly with Denver starting little-used backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham, whom they’d prefer not to rely on too much.
On paper, the Patriots have the superior rushing attack, ranking sixth in the league led by TreyVeyon Henderson’s 911 yards and nine TDs and Rhamondre Stevenson’s 603 yards and seven TDs.
The Patriots have averaged 156.1 rushing yards over the past seven games with Stevenson having six TDs (four rushing, two receiving) during that span. The Broncos, meanwhile, allowed 183 rushing yards to Buffalo last week.
Denver ranked just 16th in rushing. It was hoping top back J.K. Dobbins would return, out since Nov. 6 with a Lisfranc injury to his left foot that required surgery. But the Denver Post reported that Dobbins won’t play.
In 10 games, Dobbins rushed for 772 yards and four TDs. In the games Dobbins played, the Broncos averaged 129 rushing yards. In the eight games without him, they’ve averaged a little more than 100, but their average per carry has dropped from 4.8 yards to 3.8 yards.
The Broncos’ ground game was nearly nonexistent against the Bills last week, producing just 70 yards on 22 carries, with 29 or those coming from QB Bo Nix’s 12 carries. Jaleel McLaughlin rushed for 21 yards and rookie RJ Harvey had 20.
This figures to be a major concert for the Broncos with Dobbins looking like a no-go Sunday.
“He’s a huge energy piece to our team,” Denver right tackle Mike McGlinchey said of Dobbins.
Slippery fingers: Drake Maye has had ball-security issues all season — lowlighted by his six fumbles (three lost) in the two playoffs games. Four of those fumbles and two lost came in last week’s win over Houston.
Maye had eight fumbles in the regular season, so this is not something that’s just popped up as a recent issue, which he acknowledged.
“Work on it in practice, be mindful back there and know that my job is to protect the football,’’ Maye said. “We’ve faced some pretty good edge rushers the last couple of weeks, so [I need to] just have a feel for it and protect the football, because that’s my job.’’
Surely, the Denver defense will be salivating, though despite having one of the best pass rushes in the league, the Broncos, despite having No. 2 ranked defense and setting a franchise-record 68 sacks, have forced just 17 turnovers this season, 10 INTs and seven fumble recoveries on nine forced fumbles.
Denver, however, did force five turnovers (three fumbles, two INTs) in its win over Buffalo last week.
“You’ve got to take care of the football,’’ coach Mike Vrabel said.
Pressure packed: The Patriots have shown a propensity to blitz of late, attacking Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert in the wild-card round and getting after Houston’s C.J. Stroud last week.
According to Pro Football Focus, New England blitzed Stroud on 24 of his 52 dropbacks for a blitz rate of 46.2. That was a slightly higher percentage than against the Chargers (45.5).
On 11 blitzed dropbacks in the first half, the Patriots forced Stroud into a mere 36 percent completion percentage for just 40 yards. Overall against the blitz, Stroud went 8-for-23 for 3.9 yards per attempt.
Based on the fact that Denver backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham has started just four NFL games and hasn’t thrown a pass in a game (other than preseason) since 2023, it’s likely the Patriots will come after him.
Interestingly, New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels coached Stidham in New England his rookie season and brought him to the Raiders when he got the head coaching job there. So, he’s surely been delivering intel to the Pats’ defense.
“Every week, we try to use every resource that we have at our disposal,’’ Vrabel said. “Josh coached him a couple years ago, so anything that we have that we can use to help us, we’ll try.’’
Have it your Vra’: For Vrabel, in his first season as the New England head coach, Sunday’s game represents one of his final obstacles as a coach in the league.
Vrabel has won division titles (with the Patriots and Titans), he won Coach of the Year (2021 and maybe 2025?), but he has never gotten to a Super Bowl as a head coach the way he did as a player. He was one win away as Titans head coach in 2019 before losing to the Chiefs.
Cann’z call
Drake Maye will protect the football better than he did the previous two games and will make just enough plays against a stout Denver defense. The New England defense, meanwhile, will prevent backup QB Jarrett Stidham from penning a Jeff Hostetler-like postseason story.
Patriots 21, Broncos 17