Keir Starmer’s implosion has sparked optimism among Conservative Party members, according to a new survey, with hopes they can make an extraordinary comeback at the 2029 election.
A new poll of party members by the Conservative Home website has found that the number predicting a Conservative majority at the next election has sharply risen to a sizeable 38%.
This marks a 10% rise in just a month, while those forecasting that Sir Keir Starmer will retain his enormous majority has plummeted to just 14%.
This is down from 21% when the website asked the same question just four weeks ago.
The second most-popular option is a Conservative-led coalition, on 18%, and a Conservative minority government on 11%.
This would mark an even more astonishing comeback for a defeated party than Keir Starmer leading Labour from a record defeat in 2019 to its 170-majority in July.
Responding to its findings, the Conservative Home website warns that despite optimism among party members, “the odds of the Party returning to office in a single term are phenomenally long.”
It also observes that even in the event of a Keir Starmer slump at the election, the Tories should not be complacent that voters will return to them.
It writes: “Even in the event that Labour does contrive to lose power, it doesn’t follow that the electorate would swing back to us.”
“There are the Liberal Democrats, of course, and then Reform UK, nearly all of whose second-place finishes in July were in seats that currently boast a Labour MP.”
At least one poll since Kemi Badenoch was elected Tory leader and replaced Rishi Sunak has found the Conservatives overtaking Labour as the most popular party in Britain.
The More in Common poll found that 29% would now vote Conservative, with Labour on 27% and Reform UK on 19%.
Another poll at the weekend by Techne found the Conservatives just one point behind Labour, on 27% and 28% respectively.