Latvian intelligence has uncovered evidence that Russia is preparing for war against NATO by conducting demonstrations of force and provocations.
Finland and Norway could be under threat as well as Latvia itself in the event Vladimir Putin decides to launch an attack. Russia has increased its surveillance of NATO military activity in the Baltic Sea as tensions remain high over the continuing war in Ukraine, outlet RBC Ukraine reported. It comes after the UK confirmed Royal Air Force Typhoon jets in Poland were scrambled three times in three days last month to intercept Russian warplanes. Putin’s regime is pursuing tactics which include violating airspace without permission and carrying out aggressive manoeuvres near NATO aircraft and ships. This behaviour increases the risk of accidental military incidents which could trigger fierce responses.
While these moves are likely to be aimed at intimidation, they are also methods of testing and pushing the limits of foreign defence capabilities.
Russia has carried out a number of significant military reorganisations since the invasion of Ukraine, including creating two new “military districts” last year on the Latvian border.
It is believed this was the formal Russian response to the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO, in 2023 and 2024 respectively.
A new corps of the Russian army has also been created in Karelia, a region which straddles the border with Finland, while a number of military brigades have been turned into divisions.
The Wall Street Journal reported last week that Russia had expanded its military presence along its border with Finland and Norway, while the Kremlin had plans to establish a new army headquarters in the city of Petrozavodsk, around 100 miles east of the Finnish border.
This site would host tens of thousands of troops in the next few years, many of whom would be deployed there after the end of the Ukraine war.
Information gathered by Latvian intelligence suggests that no increase of Russian troops has yet occurred on its border, given the demands of ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
It also found strategic and operational-tactical training within the Russian army had “noticeably” decreased since the invasion of Ukraine, leading to the judgement that under current conditions, Russia does not have the capabilities for a second strategic-level ground operation.
A report from the Bundeswehr, the German army, stated Russian authorities were preparing for a large-scale war against NATO, a position reiterated by Lithuanian president Gitana Nauseda, who believes his country has 4-5 years to prepare itself.
NATO officials have been wary of the prospect of a Russian attack for some time, with Dutch admiral Rob Bauer warning last January the alliance must “expect the unexpected”.