Perhaps it was just a slip of the tongue. But it seems Tory leader Kemi Badenoch was admitting an uncomfortable truth when she said it was possible Reform UK chief Nigel Farage could indeed become Prime Minister. What else could she say after Reform’s barnstorming results in the local elections, winning a slew of council seats and mayoralties, while overturning a huge Labour majority in the Runcorn by-election?
Were these percentages replicated at a general election, Reform – currently already tipped to be the largest party in Parliament – would be heading for an overall majority. Outpacing both Labour and the Tories, especially in Leave voting areas, the elections demonstrated how much Brexit continues to be a fault-line in British politics while Reform did especially well in the left-behind parties of the country, in some ways mirroring trends of the Trump movement Stateside.
What next for Reform after the turquoise tidle-wave? Well the last poll before the elections by Find Out Now had Reform 8 points ahead. Meanwhile two polls after May 1 – one by Opinium and the other by Survation – had Reform 1 point ahead of Labour and the other tied.
The momentum is clearly strong while dissatisfaction with the Conservatives and Labour only grows. Pressure is likely to increase on Badenoch, even with huge expectation management before the elections, while Labour may well tack to the Right to guard against the Reform onslaught.
Truthfully, Reform is now redrawing UK politics with a blend of low tax, pro-business policies alongside social conservativism and economic interventionism where needed. This makes life infinitely harder for Labour as well as a big tent Tory Party which in trying to be all things to all folks alienated its base.
Reform will build on its professionalism drive and flesh out policy going forward. With more power will come greater responsibility and scrutiny however, and Farage knows it. The Reform chief will therefore be eagle-eyed about further infighting or professional embarrassment by candidates or representatives.
With the elections on May 1, Reform parked its tanks on the lawns of both main parties. A new era now beckons in which Reform remoulds British politics and gives hope to the politically disengaged. Now however comes the challenge of maintaining the momentum, while guarding against attacks both from within and outside the party.
