On the eve of the May 1 elections – during which Reform UK is expected to clean up in the Runcorn by-election, as well as win council seats and a couple of mayoralties – Nigel Farage should be mindful of what just took place in Canada. In our fellow Commonwealth Realm, Pierre Poilievre – leader of the Canadian Conservatives – should have become Prime Minister after this week’s election.
Instead, the Liberals – desperately unpopular in the dying days of the Justin Trudeau regime – won the election, with former Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney (a man not even involved in politics until earlier this year), victorious. What should have been a referendum on Trudeau’s desperately unpopular premiership turned into a referendum on Donald Trump.
Unfortunately for Poilievre, he was the one most associated with the American President, just as Trump did the unthinkable and catalysed latent Canadian nationalism thanks to his tariffs and talk of turning Canada into the 51st state.
By contrast, Carney and the Liberals became associated with a ‘Canada Strong’ message and anti-Trumpism.
Rightly or wrongly, the Canadian Tories were deemed guilty by association and now the Liberals are back in office.
Why should Nigel Farage and Reform UK sit up and pay attention? Because, despite the blockbuster opinion poll ratings, things could just as easily turn on a sixpence for the insurgent Reform.
For starters, one major scandal within Reform – aside from the kind of infighting we saw recently with Rupert Lowe – could massively deter voters from the party.
Moreover, who is to say the Tories don’t get a new leader (a return for Boris Johnson cannot be ruled out, I’d wager)?
Perhaps Labour could tack to the Right as to persuade enough Red Wallers tempted by Reform to back Sir Keir Starmer.
Then – as with Canada – there is the international situation to consider. Farage knows the British public have become noticeably cooler on Trump since the tariffs. Being overly associated with the President is riskier today than ever.
If, as I suspect is possible, a major war erupts in Asia – perhaps over Taiwan – then, should the UK be dragged in (and certainly be economically impacted) a rally-around-the-flag effect could benefit the incumbent Labour Government.
Voters would be extremely reluctant to switch governments in the midst of a global depression and war, while domestic considerations would be totally eclipsed. During Covid the Tories held a nearly-20-point lead until May 2020.
Granted, the Conservatives were still basking in the glory of their 2019 landslide while Labour suffered from the unpopularity of Corbynism.
Still, there was a rally-around-the-flag effect and incumbency advantage thanks to the pandemic.
One would expect that to be even greater in the event of a major war, which – by the way – could well take place in the 2027-29 period.
None of this detracts from Reform’s stellar ratings. Yet Farage needs to be careful not to end up like Pierre Poilievre, the man who nearly became PM.
“Events, dear boy, events” is how former Tory PM Harold Macmillan once explained the greatest challenge for politicians. Farage therefore needs to be sure Reform is prepared for every eventuality lest it slips up at the eleventh hour.