UK defence chiefs have conducted a chilling simulation of a Russian attack on the UK, based on the invasion of Ukraine, and the results were described as “was not a pretty picture”. The wargame, using the Gladiator simulator, was carried out following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
The Air Battlespace Training Centre recreated the first night of the Ukraine invasion, February 24, 2022, and observed how it would unfold if the UK was the target, with its air defences completely breached. Speaking at a Royal United Services Institute conference in London, Air Commodore Blythe Crawford revealed the grim outcome.
He was quoted by The Times saying: “We’ve stood for years at the western edge of Europe feeling as though the rest of the continent has stood between us and the enemy”. He added that the situation in Ukraine had forced a reassessment of the UK’s defensive capabilities.
“Ukraine has made us all sit up, and that drove some of the work we were doing in the warfare center to get after how we would solve a problem like that if a similar scenario was pitted against the UK.” Crawford further noted: “Over the last three years, the scenario has become much more complex, in terms of the types of systems that we need to be able to counter, but then also the mass as well.”, reports the Daily Star.
While the UK has enhanced its air defences since 2022, integrating aircraft, ships, and land-based systems, it lacks an Iron Dome-style air defence system to shield it from incoming missiles.
Any attack on the UK would significantly differ from the Ukrainian scenario, as missiles launched from the ground would have to traverse European airspace. Russia could be forced to engage its Northern Fleet and initiate an assault from the Atlantic.
Expert Blythe Crawford highlighted the complexities in countering modern warfare techniques: “When you see swarms of hundreds of drones now operating in Ukraine, some of them decoys, some of them with munitions on board, the challenge is how do you tackle them all, or do you tackle them all?” She pointed out that such challenges are not unique to Ukraine but affect the entire West.
Crawford referred to the ongoing conflict as a stern alert for Western defence strategies: “Where you have two countries with very capable integrated air defence systems going head-to-head, with neither side really achieving any form of air superiority, which has been a cornerstone of air operations for decades.”
Highlighting the potential scale of future threats, he commented on potential tactics adversaries might employ: “The possibility of ‘swarms of several hundred munitions – not just drones but combined with rockets and ICBMs, at all levels and in all spheres.”
Reassuring the public about national security, a spokesperson from the UK’s Ministry of Defense stated, per Business Insider: “The UK stands fully prepared to defend itself against any threat alongside our NATO allies,” while detailing Britain’s readiness and capabilities in missile defence: “Our military is equipped with a range of advanced capabilities to provide a layered approach to air and missile defence. This includes the world-class Sea Viper missile system, which has successfully shot down a Houthi rebel ballistic missile and attack drones in the Red Sea.”
