America is dominated by an old man seeking a legacy. Part of that is ending the killing in Ukraine. However, Trump’s also a disrupter, he wants to cut costs and, rightly, he wants to repivot to the Indo-Pacific. He thinks a deal to mine Ukraine for the precious materials his industries lack will dissuade Putin from further butchery. He thinks it will please his voters convinced that the rest of the world is exploiting the US. But he must surely know that, without proper security guarantees, that deal won’t halt Russian aggression.
Faced with the startling prospect of Trump withdrawing US support for Ukraine, panicked Presidents and Prime Ministers gathered in London at the weekend to work out how to plug the gap. But despite valiant attempts led by Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer, there is no coalition, however willing, that could safely put ‘boots on the ground’ without US engagement. I could not be party to sending our sons and daughters into what would be, without the US, the maw of Putin’s meat grinder.
Is there an alternative? Yes, and history points the way.
The best case is a 1950s Korean-style standoff on borders approximating the current front line. That would allow Trump to exploit most of Ukraine’s minerals.
With hundreds dying heroically every day, seeking commercial advantage may make Trump look like a camel-coated geezer haggling over a set of wheels. However, that’s the likely price of US engagement. Swallow hard, sign the paper. Otherwise, we’ll have the worst case scenario.
Here, bereft of US help and assisted only by allies’ material and moral support, Ukraine is pushed back to whatever defensive line it can achieve. That will likely be west of the river Dneiper and involve the occupation of Odessa. That’ll be like the Soviet-Afghan war on steroids.
That guerilla war killed tens of thousands of Soviet troops, severely degraded the titan’s military and catalysed the 1991 breakup of the USSR.
Logic dictates Putin will not risk breaking his back in a ferocious, tech-fuelled, guerilla war that cannot hold Ukraine in his empire long term. But, under pressure at home – tyrants rarely die in bed – he may feel he has no choice. That could mean years of Russian economic and military decline as the butcher’s bill racks up.
Not great for Ukraine either but with every day that passes Russia becomes weaker. This conflict against a far weaker neighbour has showcased the dire state of Russia’s military. A war of attrition will make it worse and enable Europe to rearm.
In this scenario, Europe accelerates its arms production fast enough to keep Ukraine in the fight and wear Russia down whilst replenishing its own stockpiles.
But what happens when Putin’s back is against the wall – will he play his joker? That card is nuclear. But, like Pearl Harbour in 1941, that would surely awaken Uncle Sam.
When, in God’s good time, Russia, battered and bruised, slinks back behind its borders we can set about building a future for the brave Ukrainian people.
Andrew Murrison is sanctioned by the Russian Federation
